[NL2-NL10] MSS - JJo - NL5 (EV)

    • BrunoPradoBR
      BrunoPradoBR
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2009 Posts: 106
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG+1: $8.78
      MP: $7.21
      Hero (MP+1): $2.20 VP$IP: 7.80% | PFR: 7.79% | AFq: 55.86% | 3Bet: 6.69% | Hands: 6946
      LP: $8.36
      CO: $4.00
      BTN: $6.25 VP$IP: 50% | PFR: 7% | AFq: 25% | 3Bet: 0% | Hands: 12
      SB: $5.72
      BB: $5.00
      UTG: $11.58

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05, CO posts DB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.12) Hero has J:diamond: J:club:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.20, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.52, 2 players) 8:club: 9:diamond: T:club:
      Hero bets $0.40, BTN calls $0.40

      Turn: ($1.32, 2 players) 2:club:
      Hero bets $0.65, BTN raises to $1.30, Hero raises to $1.60 and is all-in, BTN calls $0.30

      River: ($4.52, 2 players) 5:heart:

      Hero shows J:diamond: J:club: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 79%, Flop 68%, Turn 16%)
      BTN shows 5:club: 6:club: (Flush, Ten High) (Pre 21%, Flop 32%, Turn 84%)
      BTN wins $4.33


      ---------------------------------------------------------------------

      Hello everyone.

      In this hand I tried to calculate my EV.

      $ to call: $0.95
      Final Pot: $3.87 - $0.16 (Rake equals 4.15%) = $3.71
      EV: 25.60%

      I tried to guess the villain's range that he could make Call PF, Check/Call F and 3Bet Turn:


      Board: 9:diamond: T:club: 8:club: 2:club:
      Equity Win Draw
      MP2 47.03% 45.45% 1.57% { JdJc }
      BU 52.97% 51.40% 1.57% { 22, Qc9c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, KcJh, KcJs, Qc9h, Qc9s, Jh9c, Js9c }


      So, I had 47.03% of equity, that is bigger than 25.60%. In conclusion, easy call.

      Am I right?
  • 3 replies
    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Diamond
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,078
      I'm not sure how you figured final pot out. It's 2*effective stack + blinds (since it's MP vs BU) = 2*2.2 + 0.12 = $4.52. If I calculated it on turn it'd still the same -> $1.6*2 (betting round) + $1.32 (pot before betting round) = $4.52.

      So your pot odds are $0.95/$4.47=21.252%

      I don't think draws like KcJh,KcJs,Qc9h,Qc9s,Jh9c,Js9c are raising the turn unless you have a read that your opponent is capable of doing that. I think you will see made flush most of the time here. But given your stacksize and redraw vs smaller flushes it's a call.

      Your opponents looks like if he's playing, he's calling any bet. You could bet pot on flop and ship the rest on turn.
    • BrunoPradoBR
      BrunoPradoBR
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2009 Posts: 106
      Originally posted by JohnDoe1313
      I'm not sure how you figured final pot out. It's 2*effective stack + blinds (since it's MP vs BU) = 2*2.2 + 0.12 = $4.52. If I calculated it on turn it'd still the same -> $1.6*2 (betting round) + $1.32 (pot before betting round) = $4.52.

      So your pot odds are $0.95/$4.47=21.252%
      My mistake calculating the final pot, I have no idea how I got that number. You're right!

      Originally posted by JohnDoe1313
      I don't think draws like KcJh,KcJs,Qc9h,Qc9s,Jh9c,Js9c are raising the turn unless you have a read that your opponent is capable of doing that. I think you will see made flush most of the time here. But given your stacksize and redraw vs smaller flushes it's a call.
      You're right again. Thinking better there is no sense.

      Originally posted by JohnDoe1313
      Your opponents looks like if he's playing, he's calling any bet. You could bet pot on flop and ship the rest on turn.
      I will adapt my gameplay.

      Thank you for your reviews!
    • ctstc
      ctstc
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      Hi
      Why did you bet the Turn so small? I would prefer shipping it directly than betting so small on this Board.
      With such small bets you will get raises very often.