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[NL2-NL10] NL4 Heads Up - Overcards on Straight Board

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      Well, I've just started doing through analysis of my games, love to hear feedback on things that I may have missed or where I have made errors.

      Also, what percent of the time would you take the +EV bluff options so that we can keep a balanced range?

      IPoker, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $5.06 (126.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $3.94 (98.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
      SB raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.08

      Flop: ($0.24) 8 7 9 (2 players)
      Hero ?

      $0.24 pot ($0.01 rake)
      Final Board: 8 7 9
      SB mucked and lost (-$0.12 net)
      Hero mucked A Q and won $0.23 ($0.11 net)

      Preflop: Relatively unknown opponent (PFR ~ 50%) makes standard open-raise to 3BB which gives Hero pot odds of 2 to 1 (call $0.08 for pot of $0.16). Hero has all the available options at hand and must decide which will have the greatest EV.

      The villain is little tighter than the average Heads-Up player (only small sample size), therefore you can assume that he will fold a lot of worse hands to a 3-bet. Some of these hands would have payed you of if you made a hand and even on flops where you don't connect, you will still have equity and can still gain some fold equity in certain situations.

      In order to keep a lot of Villain's bad hands in his range, Hero decided to just call and then planned to check/call or check/raise the flop if he flops well, check/fold if he misses and donk-bets or check/raises with draws or air if it is +EV.

      Other possible lines:

      Fold: When this scenario is plugged into Equilab, we can find an estimate of Hero's respective equity:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 37.33% 35.69% 1.64% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
      MP3 62.67% 61.04% 1.64% { AQo }

      Hero is getting pot odds of 2 to 1 and definitely has too much equity to fold.

      Raise: Hero could raise to roughly 2.75 times the original raise (2.75 * $0.12 = $0.33) which gives his opponent pot odds of around 2 to 1 (call $0.21 for pot of $0.45). If Villain folds then Hero gains profit from getting hands with some equity to fold and if Villain calls then Hero is still doing pretty well going to the flop with the initiative (meaning we will be able to take down the pot on the flop often, due to our strong perceived range) and actually have decent equity in a moderate sized pot:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 43.50% 39.29% 4.20% { TT-22, AQs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo, KQo, QJo, JTo } - [Is likely to raise better hands, shouldn't rule out though]
      MP3 56.50% 52.30% 4.20% { AQo }

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 49.32% 45.75% 3.57% { 22+, AQs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }
      MP3 50.68% 47.10% 3.57% { AQo }

      As we have already assumed Villain is a little tight due to his less than average PFR% then we can be pretty sure that he will only 4-bet when his range is destroying our hand (JJ+, AK), meaning we will have to plan to fold to him if he makes a standard 4-bet and re-evaluate on flop if called.

      Overall, raising then folding to a 4-bet would have the best expected value as it allows us to take a small pot down a lot of the time with ace-high OOP and could also save us a lot of potential chips when compared to just calling because if we are indeed dominated, then Villain will usually show this to us via a 4-bet and allow us to get out of the hand with only a minimal loss.

      Flop: Hero only called pre-flop and is then left to decide what line he should best take on the flop.

      Hero assumes that if he donk-bets flop then he could portray a strong hand (trips or two pair which all combinations are in his perceived hand range) and can get some better hands to fold ( AK, 22-55 as well as any 7x, 8x or 9x hands that aren't two pair or better). Also you can gain even more fold equity by getting a lot of hands with decent equity (eg. Kx) to fold.

      Since Villain doesn't seem to have adopted to dealing with Hero's donk-bet tendencies then if Villain raises, Hero can assume that Villain has strong holdings (two pair or better) or QJ and maybe some Tx hands. All of these handles have great equity against Hero's cards and since a 3-bet bluff would be -EV, Hero is then able to get away from the hand pretty easily.

      Hero decides to go for donk-bet / fold flop as he reckons he'll be able to get a lot of hands to fold to his semi-bluff and even if Villain calls with a mediocre one pair hand, Hero still has some outs to win. He also risks a small amount here $0.16 (to win $0.24) and only has to be successful around 40% of the time to break even. Using the scenario calculator, we can see that Villain would fold roughly 50% meaning this line is +EV.

      Other possible lines:

      Check/fold: Considering his pre-flop range, the Villain does pretty well on this board vs. my hand:

      Board: 8d7c9h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 59.82% 57.42% 2.40% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
      MP3 40.18% 37.78% 2.40% { AdQh }

      I think Villain would bet with a lot of his range here as he wouldn't want me to see any free cards if he has a legit hand and I have a draw. as my perceived range connects pretty well with this flop. On the odd occasion that Villain checks behind, we can take down the pot with a turn donk-bet with high success and when he bets flop we can give it up without much thought.

      Check/raise: Villain will more than likely bet flop so Hero can semi-bluff 2-bet to get him to fold a lot of his range after he has already put some money in the pot. In total, more of his range has to fold to a decent sized 2-bet than when Hero donk-bet him but you have to be willing to fire a larger bet (at least $0.40) but the reward is bigger (around $0.40) meaning you have to succeed only 1 in every 2 times to break even.

      Using the scenario calculator, I worked out that Hero would have to fold roughly 66% of his hands after he had already bet the flop, meaning this line of action is +EV. Also, there will be times where you can hit a queen or an ace to spike the best hand.

      Donk-bet/3-bet: Villain's range is already quite strong when he raises the flop, it makes little sense to bluff at this range as he will only fold a select few hands, not nearly enough to make this 3-bet profitable.

      The best line of action would be check/raise as you have more fold equity on a larger pot than when donkbetting. However, as a balanced player I guess you could mix it up donkbetting or just check/folding sometimes
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Raknyo,

      Well, first of all talk about if it's a HU table or a 6max table or FR table, what is it. :P Though if it's a HU table then I wouldn't really advice to play on those limits HU, cause the rake eats you alive there and difficult to play profitable.

      Preflop: If it's HU table then why not raise it for value here and 3bet it instead? Especially if we are against unknown, perfect spots.

      As played
      Postflop: The problem why we can't Check/Raise in those spots is that actually we have very little equity once we get called and it's very connected which means it can easily hit his range as well. We can't even be sure if we have tons of fold equity vs his pairs and definitely not draws. So conclusion is rather Check/Fold it.

      Though I like the analyze. :) At least helps you understand more of those aspects.

      Best Regards.