[NL2-NL10] NL10: AQ vs donkbet on dry flop

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1900933
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $10.25 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 72374
      SB: $12.08 - VPIP: 52, PFR: 34, 3B: 8, AF: 1,2, AFq: 27, donkBetFlop: 25(4), cBetFlop: 71(7), cBetTurn: 0(2), Hands: 65
      BB: $24.75 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 22, 3B: 13, AF: 5,3, Hands: 101
      UTG: $4.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 1,7, Hands: 190
      CO: $10.43 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 52

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q :diamond: A :club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, SB calls $0.20, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.60) 5 :diamond: 8 :heart: 8 :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.42, Hero calls $0.42

      Turn: ($1.44) 3 :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.69, Hero calls $0.69

      River: ($2.82) 4 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.34, Hero calls $1.34

      The hero-calldown is terrible and I don't really want to hear feedback about it as I am a bit ashamed of it :D

      Anyway, what I wanted to talk about though is the flop donkbet and our decision. Given the fact that villain has shown a tendency to cBet on the flop and give up on the turn, can we not assume that villain might often also just donkbet on the flop and check on the turn (most likely giving up) and that thus we can call with our 2 overcards? Villain's range is superwide and it often misses this flop + we may even be ahead.

      If the assumption about him slowing down on the turn is incorrect, I prefer raising the flop though.
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Correct, you wont really see many bluffing this way. :D Either raise it up vs his donk or just leave it alone.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      In vacuum, if I don't know all that much about his donkbetting range in such a spot, when I raise I also have to be prepared to bet again on some overcard turns (not cards such as 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 on this board)? Or may I just hope that his flop donk is a move with air that he just folds to a raise and thus I can only raise the flop and then check behind turn in hopes for hitting my TP on the river?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      In vacuum, if I don't know all that much about his donkbetting range in such a spot, when I raise I also have to be prepared to bet again on some overcard turns (not cards such as 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 on this board)? Or may I just hope that his flop donk is a move with air that he just folds to a raise and thus I can only raise the flop and then check behind turn in hopes for hitting my TP on the river?
      Why would you want to Bet the turn again if you get called, his range is going to be rather made hands mainly against which you may not have a lot fold equity. Fold equity comes from the flop mainly unless we have more information.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      So even an overcard such as a King would not be a good choice for a bet on the turn? Because it's not that we can represent a King that well anyway, right?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      So even an overcard such as a King would not be a good choice for a bet on the turn? Because it's not that we can represent a King that well anyway, right?
      That's maybe the only card which may work out and even though that you can't be sure if a fish ever folds his PP or whatsoever made hand.