[NL2-NL10] NL10: T9s cBet vs a loose guy?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1901003
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $4.74 - VPIP: 61, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,5, AFq: 14, FoldTocBetFlop: 43(7), FoldTocBetTurn: 33(3), Hands: 36
      Hero (BTN): $11.70 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 72374
      SB: $10.30 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 2,3, Hands: 51
      BB: $5.67 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 1,9, Hands: 89
      UTG: $10.57 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 11, AF: 0,0, Hands: 33
      MP: $10.53 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 3,0, Hands: 145

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with T :club: 9 :club:
      2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, CO calls $0.35

      Flop: ($1.05) 3 :diamond: 2 :diamond: 4 :club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55

      Turn: ($2.15) 5 :club: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

      River: ($3.35) Q :club: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.60, Hero raises to $10.10, CO folds

      Of course, we shouldn't really try and predict such a loose guy's range but still, I was shocked at how little equity we have on this flop vs a range that could very well be similar to his:


      Board: 2:diamond: 3:diamond: 4:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    26.48%  24.42%   2.06% { Tc9c }
      MP3    73.52%  71.46%   2.06% { JJ-22, A2s+, K6s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }


      Villain also seems not to be folding vs cBets postflop all that often. That said, does it make sense to cBet here even with our backdoor FD + overcards?

      I dared to make some predictions in equilab about villain and the hands that he continues with:


      So I can more or less guess that villain folds ~40% of his hands at best on this flop. Since with my betsize I need to win the hand 34% of all times the bet ought to already be +EV because of our fold equity + we still have equity when we get called. Thus this actually seems like a rather good cBet.

      Does my analysis make sense? Where could it be improved and what is irrelevant etc.?
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