[NL2-NL10] NL10: QJ bad cBet

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 1901017
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $12.43 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 18, AF: 0,0, Hands: 34
      BTN: $10.48 - VPIP: 41, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 3,0, Hands: 34
      SB: $8.38 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 21
      Hero (BB): $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 72374

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q :heart: J :club:
      1 fold, BTN calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.05) 6 :heart: 7 :heart: 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.25) 4 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.30, BTN calls $1.30

      River: ($4.85) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.60, Hero folds

      Not sure why I thought that this is a good spot to cBet even with my overcards + bakcdoor FD + backdoor SDs vs a loose villain. With our equity it might make sense to cBet if we were IP, but surely not when we are OOP:


      Board: 6:heart: 7:heart: 9:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    29.64%  27.94%   1.70% { QhJd }
      MP3    70.36%  68.66%   1.70% { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K6s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-A2o, K8o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }


      However, if we had AhJd, would it make sense to cBet + 2nd barrel even being OOP? Our equity with AhJd:


      Board: 6:heart: 7:heart: 9:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    47.92%  45.92%   2.00% { AhJd }
      MP3    52.08%  50.08%   2.00% { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K6s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-A2o, K8o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }


      A whole different story. And a seemingly doable cBet therefore even OOP, no?

      As played: does it make sense to 2nd barrel here?
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Check/Fold the flop right away, not the best board to CB whilst you wont have tons of equity here nor fold equity.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      If we had AhJd, would it make sense to cBet + 2nd barrel even being OOP?
      On one hand, our equity is bigger vs his preflop openraising range, on the other hand, does it really make any difference at all? Because our equity with AhJd is probably just about the same vs his CONTINUING range as with QhJd. Respectively, the analysis in my above post does not make sense because our equity VS his preflop range is not the same as our equity vs the range he continues with, which is what I overlooked.

      Basically, I suppose that no is the answer :f_cool:
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      With AJ the case could be that we may even be ahead and vs calling range we of course also have better backdoors + equity, whilst with QJ and the Q high FD you never know how good your 2nd barreling FD equity will even be.