Slowplayed AA on bad Turn

    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1903747
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $363.37
      SB: $369.31
      BB: $281.13
      UTG: $241.00
      Hero (MP): $203.00
      CO: $249.25

      Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with A:heart: A:diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, SB raises to $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $12

      Flop: ($38.00) K:diamond: 9:club: 6:club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $18.14, SB calls $18.14

      Turn: ($74.28) Q:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($74.28) 5:spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $80.00, Hero ?

      Opponent is 23/20/10, 3bets 10% vs MP, fold to 4bet 71% (5 out of 7 times), flop cbet 60% (50% in 3bet pots).

      I just wonder if there's any room for folding. My plan is to snap all bets up too pot on river since my hand is massively underrepped. But IMO from his POV, I either call with KX or I fold, regardless of his bet sizing. So he should be overbetting slightly above pot with his monsters (KQ/QQ/KK) to go for max value vs my AK/KJs.

      I cannot think of a bluff which plays in this manner. So it boils down to whether he valuebets a worse hand in this manner. I also can't really think of any (I think AK bets flop and even if he somehow checks AK he wouldn't overbet it on the River, given that I would have KQ much more often than KJ though I can't have it after checking Turn)

      If you call AA, are you calling AK? Are you calling KJs?
  • 5 replies
    • 1mpr0x
      1mpr0x
      Platinum
      Joined: 27.11.2009 Posts: 3,404
      I fold; Don`t expect him to valuebet worse OTR especially after 3bet c/c flop. He`s not polarized at all so we don`t really have a bluffcatcher. We block Ax and he will probably cbet any Ac and never turn As into a bluff OTR so this will mostlikely be something like QQ
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      I'm b/folding turn here and then checking back the river. As played, I'm calling that river bet. If u don't call AA here I think u're folding 100% because I can't think of any better hand. This is good spot for him to turn something like JJ or 9x into a bluff. When u check back that turn I think he puts u on something like QJs,AQ. Maybe he expects u to 4bet AK , so ur range is Qx heavy from his point of view.
    • axelphoney
      axelphoney
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      I don't get the checkback ott. Care to explain your thoughtprocess there?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      It improves KQ/QQ, I think he rarely has something like KJ or AK, he folds JJ and worse hands. He may/may not have random KXs but he's OOP so I think he might not have too many of those types of hand. I also don't really think I have 3 streets against such hands.
    • TheBook85
      TheBook85
      Silver
      Joined: 13.02.2010 Posts: 119
      Originally posted by getdotacom
      I'm b/folding turn here and then checking back the river. As played, I'm calling that river bet. If u don't call AA here I think u're folding 100% because I can't think of any better hand. This is good spot for him to turn something like JJ or 9x into a bluff. When u check back that turn I think he puts u on something like QJs,AQ. Maybe he expects u to 4bet AK , so ur range is Qx heavy from his point of view.
      +1