[NL2-NL10] nl10, AJ IP, raise turn

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $10.20 (102 bb)
      Hero (BB): $10.13 (101.3 bb)
      MP: $29.83 (298.3 bb)
      BTN: $5.68 (56.8 bb)
      CO: $9.14 (91.4 bb)
      UTG: $7.65 (76.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
      4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.60) J 5 9 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

      Turn: ($1.40) 2 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.88, Hero raises to $2.20, SB calls $1.32

      River: ($5.80) K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      $5.80 pot ($0.29 rake)
      Final Board: J 5 9 2 K
      SB showed J A and won $2.76 (-$0.14 net)
      Hero showed J A and won $2.75 (-$0.15 net)

      i don't often play this way, however i thought that there were many river cards which i do not want to see; any K, Q, T or :club: , and he can easily be barrelling with a flush draw in which case he may even call a raise here. villain is fairly unknown but he is a reg who is pretty loose and likes showdowns. am i just turning my hand into a bluff here?
  • 1 reply
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Hi DrDunne,

      I like your turn raise and size but you should make it with the intention of getting more value on the river, I'd bet 1.6 on this river and be sure to get extra value.

      From your analysis you seem to overvalue the flush combos in his range. How many do you think he is betting flop with ?

      I mostly expect him to have weak jack, TT, 9x, maybe 88-66 and ofc some backdoor flushes. This is why I think your raise size is very good here ;) .

      Best regards.