[NL2-NL10] NL10: A2s bluffcatch flop+turn

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1904482
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $8.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 0,0, Hands: 80
      BB: $5.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 17, 3B: 3, AF: 1,9, Hands: 332
      UTG: $10.15 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 29
      MP: $8.53 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 20
      Hero (CO): $10.44 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 75534
      BTN: $13.17 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 3,0, AFq: 21, FoldTocBetFlop: 25(4), FoldTocBet3Bflop: 0(1), WTS:32, W$SD:60, Hands: 228

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A :spade: 2 :spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.75) 4 :diamond: A :diamond: 6 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($0.75) 3 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($0.75) 3 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.40, BTN folds

      I am not sure we can make any big conclusions about villain's flop calling range based on his fold to cBet stats as the sample is still small and at the end of the day it is still just a statistic. However, I do guess that if his % fold vs cBet tendency won't change as the sample size is growing, I suppose this could even be a cBet for value.

      So my first question:
      1) if I assume that villain can call with PPs and FDs on the flop, and I do cBet this flop, it makes sense to check the turn, right? By betting the turn I protect from FDs (also avoid getting semi-bluffed if he has the FD), but most likely force out the PPs, which would have checked behind anyway. I don't think villain is floating me on the flop with air.

      2) As played: which line is best on the turn?

      I think that if villain indeed wanted to bluff he would have done it on the flop already and I am not going to get more out of his air hands anyway, as he is likely just giving up with them. So I maybe could have just bet on the turn already? Maybe some PPs or spade FDs can still call + I get a bigger pot on the river if I hit my FD or SD.
      Potential plan for the river then:
      I guess it would just make sense to check on all blank river cards and hope he turns his missed spade FD into a bluff, because I am not all that sure he is calling the river with a low/mid PP anyway.
  • 6 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Hi Avatars91,

      Best way to play here is to check flop and bet turn + river. We can expect him to bet all his fd's on the flop vs a check so being outdrawn is not really a risk here.

      Why I say this? Because it makes sense to check your weak aces to strengthen your checking range. If you cbet all Ax guess you are check folding 100% of at least giving up by the turn.

      You have a hand which can only get 2 streets of value and since you don't have to fear overcards coming you get best value on T+R.

      Best regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I agree with your line and it's sane.
      Just on a sidenote - in practice, is it not often the case that we don't really see all that light calldowns on both of the streets? At least not on the river with something like 88 after calling the turn?
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I think that villain can deff decide to calldown something like 88 just because people usually only have air when they check the flop so he is expecting you to just be stabbing with air/draw.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      We don't need to balance our checking range on NL10. :P Nor nobody will really exploit it or anything.

      If we Check the flop and then Bet the turn our hand is more easier to read and more towards Ax hands, cause we wont really have bluffs there, basically just maybe backdoor draws though even those would CB such a flop. Therefore I'd start betting the flop myself to get value from FD + we have also backdoor FD ourselves and even SD.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Analogically, if it was a rainbow flop and we decided to check (I assume checking to be the correct play there), we would have to check again on the turn? Because we can't really have that many bluffs in that spot on the turn either.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Analogically, if it was a rainbow flop and we decided to check (I assume checking to be the correct play there), we would have to check again on the turn? Because we can't really have that many bluffs in that spot on the turn either.
      Don't understand your question? We can't have that many bluffs on the turn? You would have TP Ace.