[NL20-NL50] SH50 AJ top 2 river villain raises

    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      CO: $76.60 (153.2 bb)
      BTN: $51.27 (102.5 bb)
      Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $99.04 (198.1 bb)
      UTG: $50.75 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J A
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) 5 4 J (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

      Turn: ($8) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($8) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, CO raises to $16, Hero ?


      Villain seems rather competent, 24/20 300 hands, WTSD 39, AF 2.8, river AF 4.0.
      I bet on the large size because I don't think he is folding a lot of Jx and Ax there, since I am agg and I may have missed my flush. When I see him raise I was like oh crap, 67 got there. But the price is so good and he may be raising some random 2 pair hand so I really don't know what to do. His check on the turn doesn't help my thought process a lot, cause he has to have J8 or A8 to play it like that...
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello circoflax,

      Well, Ax would Bet the turn himself, so it's towards rather a made hand. Nor we can't exclude 88 either from his range and to take into account that we have mainly beat J8 and vs any other hand we are rather behind unless we assume him having a bluffing range, I'd plan to Bet/Fold it.

      Board: 5:club: 4:diamond: J:club:  A:spade:  8:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    24.00%  24.00%   0.00% { AhJh }
      MP3    76.00%  76.00%   0.00% { 88, J8s, 76s, J8o, 76o }

      Best Regards.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I'd check/raise this flop with AJ. (not with KJ). I think there is enough value te get. His range is also wide enough (no nit) and it's BB vs CO.

      I agree with the riverfold allthough it's hard to do
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      If you check raise this flop with AJ against me and you're not a nit, I'm shoving all the better hands plus all the draws that have equity. If I have worse than AJ, I think I'll just let it go, cause what can I expect really, for you to give up on the turn if I call and hope for a free showdown?

      So I don't think there's much value to be gained. He's cbetting so much air and my hand is quite strong on that board, at least for 2 bets. My 2c are more towards calling. What's the plan if he shoves over your raise and you only have TP?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by circoflax
      If you check raise this flop with AJ against me and you're not a nit, I'm shoving all the better hands plus all the draws that have equity. If I have worse than AJ, I think I'll just let it go, cause what can I expect really, for you to give up on the turn if I call and hope for a free showdown?

      So I don't think there's much value to be gained. He's cbetting so much air and my hand is quite strong on that board, at least for 2 bets. My 2c are more towards calling. What's the plan if he shoves over your raise and you only have TP?
      Okay that's clear :P tnx
    • ttjjboy
      ttjjboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2009 Posts: 4,205
      agree fold river
      but i dunt think there r too many 67s 67o in his range as turn card is good enough for him to 2nd barrel with straight draw
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by circoflax
      If you check raise this flop with AJ against me and you're not a nit, I'm shoving all the better hands plus all the draws that have equity. If I have worse than AJ, I think I'll just let it go, cause what can I expect really, for you to give up on the turn if I call and hope for a free showdown?

      So I don't think there's much value to be gained. He's cbetting so much air and my hand is quite strong on that board, at least for 2 bets. My 2c are more towards calling. What's the plan if he shoves over your raise and you only have TP?
      Yup, pretty much it.