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[NL2-NL10] [NL10-SH] Can I ever fold a boat here?

    • orojanjivu
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 52
      Villain is 0/0 over 3 hands only. The way its played he can only hold AA or 99, or a pure (out of logic) bluff of course. I stab flop, rest speaks for itself.
      Already felt like there was an ugly slowplay going on - thats why I only minraise river - so I can fold to a shove. What do you guys think. It keeps bugging me a bit:)
      The only hand I beat - fairly unlikely - is A5.

      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Hand afspelen

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 6, 6.
      MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 raises to $0.40, CO folds, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($1.35) A, 5, 9 (3 players)
      MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.70, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.70.

      Turn: ($2.75) 5 (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($2.75) 6 (2 players)
      MP3 bets $1.70, Hero raises to $3.40, MP3 raises to $6.50, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $6.15.
  • 2 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      preflop and flop stab seem fine.

      on the river... he is not playing A9 like this and K5 is most likely not even in his range. a reasonable range for him to play like this may be:

      Board: A:club: 5:spade: 9:heart:  5:heart:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    77.78%  77.78%   0.00% { AA, 99, 55, A5s, 65s }
      BU     22.22%  22.22%   0.00% { 6h6s }

      that said, we only need 3.10/15.75 = 19.7% on the river.
      however, considering that he may not iso with A5s, 55, 65s and A5s, 65s may not even want to 3bet the river, it's definitely more towards a fold than a call.

      nice hand :f_biggrin:
    • orojanjivu
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 52