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[NL2-NL10] NL10 ~ QQ facing BB aggression on rag board

    • MasochisticDesire
      MasochisticDesire
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2010 Posts: 487
      iPoker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: $3.00
      BTN: $10.35
      SB: $17.83
      BB: $29.56 28/17/13/1.3 (90) fold to Steal 71%
      UTG: $12.87
      Hero (MP): $15.61

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q:club: Q:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 4:heart: 6:diamond: 2:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.48, BB raises to $1.60, Hero calls $1.12

      Turn: ($3.85, 2 players) 3:club:
      BB bets $2.70, fold

      BB wins $3.60


      Couldn't bring myself to fold to the flop C/R but am now wondering if I should 3bet/fold the flop.
      Check calling doesn't seem to buy me anything though, already hoping for a brick on T+R and play small ball.

      Turn I think I have to reluctantly fold as I only beat smaller overpairs to the board, all of which I think slow down on this Turn. I guess villain could be semi bluffing a strong FD.
      I think villain is polarised but leaning closer to straights and sets.
      Good fold?

      How about variations on flop play?

      Thanks,
      MD
  • 4 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello MasochisticDesire,

      Well, but calling and folding on rather a blank card doesn't make much sense either. The 3 doesn't improve much of his range whilst most likely the guy wont have that many 5x hands.

      Best Regards.
    • bmfbpi
      bmfbpi
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 590
      don't call the flop check-raise if you don't plan on calling a blank turn. it makes absolutely no sens and you are burning money this way

      what kind of player is he ? do you have any reads ?
      what range do you give him ? do you think he does this as a semi-bluff ?

      let's think about his range a bti and you will get your answer(don't be results oriented).


      I assume 13 is his 3bet%, so he does 3bet a good percentage of the time, so I would rule out JJ-AA, AKo and AKs as I think he almost always 3bets these for value

      He's in the BB, what is his most likely preflop calling range ?
      pairs, suited connectors, broadways

      when you bet and he check-raises you, his range becomes more narrow. He could do this with:
      - sets
      - overpairs to the board
      - flush draws
      - straight draws ( but would he call 57o pre in the BB and play it OOP ? maybe, but unlikely)

      Now it all comes down to if you think he check-raises you as a semi-bluff.

      if he does, then he does this with his semi-bluffs, overpairs and sets:
      Board: 4h 6d 2d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 36.004% 35.44% 00.57% 91563 1468.50 { TT-66, 44, 22, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, 7d5d }
      Hand 1: 63.996% 63.43% 00.57% 163890 1468.50 { QQ }

      you have 2 options here. shove flop or call and re-eval turn.
      shoving flop may seem ok but when you shove flop his range becomes even narrower, because now you have to think if he calls FD to a shove. If he calls FD then it's clear that shove is a good option here

      As played, on the turn what does he bet ?
      his straights, his sets and his overpairs. Don't think he would fire again here with his FD tbh

      Board: 4h 6d 2d 3c
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 34.225% 30.61% 03.61% 2748 324.00 { TT-66, 44, 22, 7d5d }
      Hand 1: 65.775% 62.17% 03.61% 5580 324.00 { QQ }


      what can we infer from my post ? it all comes down to the villain's tendencies and knowing your opponent
    • MasochisticDesire
      MasochisticDesire
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2010 Posts: 487
      Hey guys, thanks for the responces this is great.

      but calling and folding on rather a blank card doesn't make much sense either


      don't call the flop check-raise if you don't plan on calling a blank turn


      This is great stuff as it suggests I am gunna learn something as I didn't think this was a blank Turn at all.
      Sadly, with only 90 hands on opponent I have no solid stats.
      However, calling from the blinds with eproximately a 29% range I thought his range includes 45s,56s,A5s. (only 12 combos of 5x though to be fair.)

      As played, on the turn what does he bet ?

      his straights, his sets and his overpairs. Don't think he would fire again here with his FD tbh


      Yeah, this is why I thought myself behind on the turn.

      Thanks a lot for the effort you put in to equilab bmfbpi,
      unfortunately I have very little experience with the tool and can't make any sense of the probabilities you have posted.
      I will explore some hand ranges in equilab when I get back from work and hopefully you guys can take a look.

      Thanks again,
      MD
    • bmfbpi
      bmfbpi
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 590
      glad to help

      just ask away