Is this just a normal downsing? or master of downswings?

    • N4rk0
      N4rk0
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.03.2008 Posts: 1,056
      I played sss on titan and mansion , i managed to get a br of 900$ , then i decided to switch to Full Tilt to play NL100 coz to take a few rakeback at the end of month....
      And in 10 days (about 10000hands) i'm about -500$ , thanks to the initial bonus i'm only 300$ down ....btw i started running insanely bad , a lot of bad beats , and these are my statistics elaborated with poker ev.
      In 98% of cases i should have gone better , and in 2% of cases worse , this probability is showed in this graph:

      In this graph there is the expected winning on all-ins , it's 300$ higher than the real winnings.


      Is this just a normal downsing ? i never had a so bad run
  • 6 replies
    • midgetjay
      midgetjay
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 241
      I wouldn't say it is a "master of downswings" as my All-in Probability Curve looks almost exactly like yours. We have roughly the same sample size: mine is 12K hands and yours is 10K, so I would say that it is standard. I hope you pull out out of it soon though, I know how it feels to get pounded by mediocre hands. Things will level out in the longrun -- but how long is the longrun? Duke it out and find out I guess.
    • tehChipDonk
      tehChipDonk
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 173
      im on some kind of run like that too, -$200 for this week (of course, running bad leads to playing bad! aka exactly what my name says. but to be honest, there were more bad beats than the mistakes that i donked). i was grinding at the NL25 playing sss (i think i played ~20k hands), oh well, it's from the profit money no biggie. sometimes you gotta feed the fish when you keep getting rivered and lose those 4to1s....
    • N4rk0
      N4rk0
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.03.2008 Posts: 1,056
      It seems to me that FT awards bad play more than good play :|
    • tehChipDonk
      tehChipDonk
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 173
      Originally posted by N4rk0
      It seems to me that FT awards bad play more than good play :|
      yea some what, because that's how ft gets the fish to come back, if the fish dont suck out, they wont come back =/
    • tehChipDonk
      tehChipDonk
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 173
      Originally posted by midgetjay
      I wouldn't say it is a "master of downswings" as my All-in Probability Curve looks almost exactly like yours. We have roughly the same sample size: mine is 12K hands and yours is 10K, so I would say that it is standard. I hope you pull out out of it soon though, I know how it feels to get pounded by mediocre hands. Things will level out in the longrun -- but how long is the longrun? Duke it out and find out I guess.
      yo, i tried to say what's up on FT, but their admins banned my chat for a month because i was steaming pretty badly haha. i guess im gonna hollar at you on here then
    • N4rk0
      N4rk0
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.03.2008 Posts: 1,056
      Hum , i also ave these doubts on FT , it looks like that the worse hand on preflop or flop become the best hand on the river too many times! And this is definitely not good for sss !