[NL2-NL10] AQs squeeze, Flopped FD vs Donk Bet

    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Silver
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP: $8.36
      Hero (CO): $29.77
      BTN: $13.80
      SB: $11.44
      BB: $10.90
      UTG: $10.15

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q:spade: A:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.40, MP calls $0.40, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.10, MP calls $1.10

      Flop: ($4.65, 3 players) K:spade: 2:diamond: 5:spade:
      UTG bets $3.31, fold, [color=red]Hero ???

      Pre flop i squeezed to get a call from MP (vpip 35 / pfr 3) who is a fish and calls liberally and a fold from utg (15/ 13 with 75 AFq) ,who folds a lot to 3bets, and my hand vs his utg raise is more of a bluff.

      On the flop, i think that when he leads on a protected pot (very low spr with a fish in) he has me beaten. So a fold is an option.

      On the other hand, he only represents a very narrow range that beats me and can call a shove, since 22 and 55 are not on his flatting oop range and most probably neither KK , he only represents AK.
      With that thinking in mind he has either AK or rarely TT-QQ, since he cannot have KQ or QJ of spades.

      So it is possible to make some maths ,even vs a nit, that a shove is breakeven play by using the argument that he would check raise really strong.

      But i think it all comes down to that he is a nit, the pot is protected and that metagame considerations usually are not that important in the micros.

      Rounding it up ,IF we conclude that the preflop play is OK, either option on the flop (Shove/fold) is plausible i think, and it comes down to variance and tilt control, right?
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I would prefer shove. You might easily be way ahead if UTG is calling pre-flop smt like 9s8s and if his range also consists some KQ or KJs hands then you´re mostly flipping. Even against AK you have 38% equity (but that is the rick if you 3-bet pre-flop).

      If I put him some kind of range, then you´re doing fine:

      board: Ks2d5s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AsQs 43.50% 16,310 107
      KQ, AK, KJs, 9s8s, 22, 55, AA, JsTs, 66 56.50% 21,203 107

      But once he is bluffing and he folds you win 78bb pot without showdown that compensates all the other 60% when you loose to better hand

      best regards,
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Silver
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Thnx Kaitz20,

      I did Shove actually and he showed up with AK and win.

      The good thing though is that 5 minutes later i stack him on another table and i think that, considering his nitty preflop play, this hand had something to do with his decision. I mean not every nit stacks-off on that flop vs any opponent with that holding, right?

      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $10.97
      BB: $7.26
      UTG: $10.00
      MP: $5.75
      CO: $12.16
      Hero (BTN): $14.90

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold

      Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) K:heart: 5:spade: T:spade:
      SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, SB raises to $5.17, Hero raises to $14.60 and is all-in, SB calls $5.50 and is all-in

      Turn: ($22.04, 2 players) 7:club:

      River: ($22.04, 2 players) 3:club:

      SB shows Q:heart: K:diamond: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 24%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
      Hero shows A:spade: K:spade: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 76%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
      Hero wins $21.04

      that hand is mentioned just to note that we might add some metagame factors in our decision when we take the aggressive action vs a reg, not for some evaluation reason really.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I agree, I would also stacked off AsKs, because of your aggressive image he would very likely play for stacks with worse hands especially blind vs blind situation.

      best regards,