Win A Seat in My Seminar!

    • Leatherass9
      Leatherass9
      Basic
      Joined: 17.05.2011 Posts: 55
      Hey guys,

      This is a hand played by a PokerStrategy.com member on the Microgaming network. I will leave the thread up for discussion and whoever produces the best reasoning for their thought processes will win a free seat at my live seminar that includes:

      -> 2 days @ 8 hours each (16 hours total) coaching


      -> Tailored content to each attendee individually

      -> 3 days and 2 nights of accommodation at the the Hotel Adlon (5 star luxury hotel) including Wellness area, Spa, Swimming , Whirlpool and Fitness area


      -> Gourmet breakfast, lunches, Catering throughout the seminars

      -> Free Wifi

      -> VIP Party at the Hard Rock Cafe Berlin with me (Dusty), drinks and food is on the house, as is shuttle to the Party and back to the hotel

      -> DVD box set of the seminar.


      Ok on with the discussion..

      Villain is 58/40 with a 100% bet when checked to stat. He has been randomly potting throughout the session and has a very high turn barrel % and has shoved 3/3 rivers so far.

      What line do we like best? If we play the same as hero whats our plan on what rivers? Who plays flop differently? Turn?


      €10/€20 No Limit Holdem
      Prima
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG Player5 (€2,060) 103bb
      UTG+1 Player6 (€4,221) 211bb
      CO Player1 (€2,569.42) 128bb
      BTN Hero (€2,634) 132bb
      SB Player3 (€5,055) 253bb
      BB Player4 (€7,255.50) 363bb

      Pre-Flop: (€30, 6 players) hero is BTN 7:heart: 8:heart:
      1 fold, Player6 raises to €60, Player1 calls €60, hero calls €60, 2 folds

      Flop: 6:spade: 4:club: 7:club: (€210, 3 players)
      Player6 checks, Player1 bets €210, hero calls €210, Player6 folds

      Turn: 10:spade: (€630, 2 players)
      Player1 bets €630, hero calls €630

      Final Pot: €1,890
  • 143 replies
    • Yoyoyh
      Yoyoyh
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.12.2011 Posts: 159
      Hey dusty!
      Don't you think that some post may be affected by others? Thus the last guy have possibility to get inspired by other users and create the best answer
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Ok guys, good luck!

      Yoyoyh, Dusty will take everything into account so posting earlier and getting yout thoughts in before somebody says something very similar will obviously be +ev :P

      With competitions like this there is always dangers of people doing things like that, but its a fun, community building competition and a great offer from Dusty and the seminar team.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,507
      Can I try too? :)
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Anybody is allowed to enter. Coaches, bronze members, black members, even PLO players :f_love:
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Well 2K sit down is a long way from $2 sit down. :f_biggrin:

      I can't see me calling the turn and then waiting for villain to shove the river unless I'm going with it anyway. But if I'm going with it anyway, why aren't I raising the turn then?

      Guy is loonytoons, raise turn for me, go with it and rub the money on my boobies. :D

      Mal.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Before I even post, could you tell us the dates of this seminar?
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Holla,

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/content/Win-a-Seat-to-Dusty-Leatherass9-Schmidt-s-3-Day-Poker-Coaching!_64392/

      14-16 December.
    • alterboy
      alterboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2009 Posts: 2,138
      Ok.
      I assume with have a correct sample size for vilain.

      In my experience check / call, lead turn by fish is often a bluff. A way to reverse float. But not always, sometimes they improve with a good hand and /or want to pot control.

      Since he is betting turn so much we can assume it is a bluff. His range can be so wide, he could have almost anytwo here , air, backdoor flush draw, gutshot...

      Probably not the ten he could have check / raise if he likes to overplay a hand. We can think bet pot the turn is overplay too, but still, I think he would had let the initiative if he did improve his hand.

      So, the call turn is ok if we think he can have almost anything, but if we put him on many draw gutshot he won't fold since he bet so big, we can raise the turn too.

      If we call turn, we call any river because we put him on any two card. Advantage of calling is than we can induce easier a shove because we looks weak.




      Edit : I m first xD
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      First of all, I'd like to say that preflop 3betting should be strongly considered. 78s will have less and less value the more players in the pot even though we have position. Allowing the blinds to come along with higher suited cards turns our 78s towards the value of 78o since we will have our flush out live less and less.

      Player1 is clearly considered weak so it would be the perfect spot to 3bet and try and isolate the pot HU with him. No info on initial open raiser makes it hard to decide but definitely a strong consideration. Overall, the hand lacks information about the dynamics at the table which are key when deciding such actions.

      We also lack 3bet stat from Player1. Since he called, is his preflop range capped or does he call QQ+, AK, AQ preflop as well? Considering he is on the aggressive side and therefore 3bets his premiums I will assume he doesn't have QQ+ or AK, AQ in his postflop range. If preflop raiser is aware or Player1's tendency I wouldn't exclude the chance that he can check his whole value range here to trap the hyper-aggro player's money into the pot, so I wouldn't ignore him. We are clearly ahead of Player1's range with our TP + gutshot. That said, we don't have crushing equity. If we consider Player6 to always fold, then I assume we have about 55-60% equity against his whole range made of the nuts (straight, sets), any flopped pair, any flushdraw and backdoor flush with overcards/gutshot and little air like overcards with one club. My thinking here is to compare raising and calling.

      Calling:
      - We allow Player1 to do what he is comfortable doing and will mostly likely realize his equity since we usually go in call down mode.
      - Our hand will very often be face up to Player6 but we don't have information whether he is capable of exploiting this or not.
      - We play a guessing game with lots of bad turn and river cards, no chance for use to make the nuts.

      Raising:
      - We make Player1 fold a good share of his equity a high percentage of the time (or get value the wider he stacks off)
      - We are reasonably likely to make Player6 fold a high equity share and possibly bigger hands since our range contains many strong hands while his may or may not have the nuts that go for check/raise given the dynamic around Player1.
      - If we get it in against made hands and strong draws we have approximately 40% equity, meaning we don't need to win the pot here and now too often and correctly realize our equity, while also having a 'protected' range (G-Bucks situation) with all the nut type hands possible here.

      Therefore, after just calling preflop I prefer raising flop to a committing amount. With no info on Player6 of how often/light he plans to stack off vs both players I think it's going to be the best play because we realize our equity correctly 100% of the time (non-capped range, folding equity, actual equity when stacking off) and create a dynamic since to many stacking off our hand here would seems extremely spewy.

      As played by Hero, I don't have a good plan of what to do since given Player1's tenedency there is no actual blank card therefore I assume calling down regardless of what card comes should be our first thought since we always have >33% equity against 100% of his range, whether he pots or bets smaller. That said, Player1 can correctly check sometimes and I don't think we can ever bluff/thinly value bet correctly with our flopped top pair. The best way to approach river is probably to think what our range is there and play it accordingly since the info we have is that player shoves all river after flop and turn actions. Is 78 close enough to the top of our range to call? If it is close but we cannot call we probably have to reconsider previous streets, which is why I would choose a different play compared to what Hero did in this case.

      * I did the equity calculations using EquiLab but the range is so wide that t would look very insesthetic to post it here.
    • TilTmuch
      TilTmuch
      Global
      Joined: 06.10.2010 Posts: 1,185
      i vote for manu
    • TilTmuch
      TilTmuch
      Global
      Joined: 06.10.2010 Posts: 1,185
      i vote for manu
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Don't really expect anyone to read, just figured it'd be cool to post in Dusty's thread :coolface:


      58/40. Perhaps this guy is just next-level good aggressive Cole style. He probably isn't.

      58% is very loose, but it's not 100%. He has a folding range and hence some sort of criteria for hand selection. We don't know for certain that this is influenced by table position but likely his VPIP is less than 58% from the CO vs an UTG+1 open.
      We are given no direct information about his 3betting tendencies.Given the nature of 10/20 games I'd infer our villain is 3betting a decent amount to achieve a PFR of 40%, otherwise the game would have to be very passive for him to open-raise so much. We can tighten up his cold-calling range somewhat as a result.

      If I think he's bad I'd tend to weight his 3betting range towards depolarized value (even though it might be theoretically flawed to 3bet hands like AJo and KQo for value vs certain MP opens.) If I think he's a little better, just ultra aggressive, he's going to be a lot more polarized when he 3bets. I'd assume he's depolarized more often; the general description of him seems to suggest aggressive and spewy. I'd remove a decent amount of value combinations from his flatting range and keep in a wider amount of the speculative hands a decent player might use to bluff with T7s etc.

      If he is playing ~60% of hands and raising 40% his ratio of raises : calls is 2:1. I expect him to have a much lower ratio of calls:raises in this particular spot since he is facing an open raise, perhaps 1:3 (raises : calls). With an adjusted VPIP of 40% (reduced because of position), he'd be cold-calling an estimated 30% range here. Bottom-heavy as discussed, maybe it looks like this.



      How does that range connect with a 6 4 7? Given my estimations of villain's pf ranges he hits this board harder than other players might. He still has a bunch of junk though. Let's assume he's not potting junk, but anything with equity.(A pair, a flushdoor, an open-ender, or a combo gutshot). We are left with this, (all suited cards without a pair/draw only have the 1 combination of clubs left etc).




      We know he is going to barrel the turn and probably river really wide, so let's run a stove.





      We have 52% equity on the flop. We are flipping but can call because of money in the pot. He is not necessarily barrelling turn with a 100% frequency, but we are going to have odds to call any turn/river assuming he's barrelling very wide. Vs pot size bets we obviously need 33% equity for a break-even call. It may be in reality villain is not barrelling wide enough for us to call all turns/rivers but it's difficult to make concrete estimates given the limited sample size and information. Calling down is going to allow you to make more informed decisions vs this player in the future, even if it is thin and/or a short-term mistake.

      I don't think raising at any point makes sense unless we spike a 5. Partly as a result of having a hand that is clearly strong enough to bluff catch vs his wide-range, but also because it's difficult to say what raising flop or turn would achieve given our level of info. Against his range it'd feel like a merge seeing as he might fold better but call with worse. Raising is certainly not out of the question; raising the turn could potentially be very strong. It could also be pretty awful. It's difficult to say without further info.

      If he checks river there is rarely any value given turn/river likely to bring overs and/or complete flushes - but on very specific rivers a small value bet might be possible given the amount of lower pairs and pair+gutshot stuff in his range.

      Also notice the flop SPR - around 13. This usually sets up great opportunities to bluff villain if he doesn't fire the river. On certain bad rivers it might be better to turn medium value hand into a bluff. (It really depends on which range you think he is NOT 3barrelling). This perhaps is less important given so far our villain is firing every river, but it is interesting to note nonetheless.

      Just as a final note, this is clearly a high variance spot. Given the dramatic implied odds you potentially have against this aggressive player it wouldn't be terrible to wait for a spot where you flop the type of hand that really benefits. Theoretically we can call down 3 streets here, but we have a hand that suffers from reverse implieds in a spot where the stacks are set up nicely for our opponent to triple barrel. Unless I strongly felt taking such small edges was necessarily to beat the game, I'd consider folding the flop. There is still the original open-raiser left to act remember. Turn and river will often be bad for our hand, and opponent is probably going to 3barrel. I don't play 10/20, so if you tell me taking small edges like this is necessary, I'll take your word for it. From the limited info you've given about villain he seems like a huge but rich fish. I've got no problems about flopping a little stronger before I call off my entire stack.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,901
      Way out of my league, but FWIW:

      With this guy I'm picking a better spot, and folding pre. With those stats, we will have much better chances later, and many of them, since we will ALWAYS have position on him except for the 1 hand per orbit he has the button. He is ideally placed for us to 3Bet the night away.

      Why waste $ on a "needsaflop" hand?

      It is only 3BB though, and if we do decide to "see a flop", I would want a better flop than this to chuck out 10.5 bb.

    • imbahness
      imbahness
      Platinum
      Joined: 07.09.2009 Posts: 122
      To be honest we shouldn't put him on a ''range'' of course he is ''only'' 58/40 , but most of these guys are random button pushers , whenever they are up to , they can pot the whole way with J2o or any random 2 .

      Assuming he's a maniac from the sample you gave us , I like the line the player did there, so there is 647 poss FD , and he pots it into us , i would not raise coz the initial raiser can still have sets , over pairs , flush draws , which he can easily shove vs 2 , in the other hand we have a gutter and a top pair, pretty strong to make it an easy call.

      Turn card is great for us , we have a double gutter now , and he pots it again ,like a decent maniac does, most of the time we were ahead of him already , even if not we should have decent equity now to make the call easy ,raising is no way to go in my opinion , maybe he could fold some of his trash , but obviously we don't want that to happen knowing he's shoving any river.

      On the river i think we just have to call him down ,( if it happens that he checks depending on whether we hit or not , we check back or shove ) and i would snap whatever it is ( of course hyper snap if we hit) .

      In my opinion this should be our only option to play the hand given the sample we have.
    • CryingAce
      CryingAce
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 989
      Don`t like the idea of 3 betting pre vs this player ,who can 4Bet Bluff alot and we waste our hand ...
      I would call pre and raise to an amount on the flop that gives Pl One the illusion of FE and call / or shove it .
      I expect Pl 6 folding nearly everytime ,but when he raises i can easily fold , same game over when he calls .

      As played i would fold the Turn
    • NightShadePMC
      NightShadePMC
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 798
      What you would do before the river is irrelevant since the question is about the river, so you should maybe instead try to understand what has happened up to here and what the Hero was thinking.

      Notes before I explain my opinion:
      -I will consider his range as being 40% of the starting hands, since he is in MP. If he was in UTG/CO/BU, this would have to be adjusted. This is the approximative range I will be putting him on:

      -Given our info so far, he must be tagged as a maniac and handled as such, that's as clear as daylight. That's why I consider that the line chosen by the hero is one of the best, if not the best, possible options.
      -Hero is in position and therefore can control the pot much easier.
      -The villain is likely to double/triple barrel with almost all, if not absolutely all pocket cards from his starting range on this dangerous turn.

      * It's pretty clear until the river, the hero is letting the maniacal overbetting fish bury himself, having the best hand well over 80% of the time at the very least with the top pair and considering his range,with room for improvement to a straight,2 pairs or 3 of a kind. Some of you might think that getting a second pair is a problem because any 5 in his hand gives him a straight,but given his 40% raising range, the only pocket cards including a 5 would be 55, 54s, A5s/o, K5s, maybe sometimes 53s, which would add up to 2.9% of all possible hands and a very,very small fraction of his 40% starting hands.
      * When the turn comes,we're still ahead roughly 70% of the time. We can calculate this by crossing the hands that beat us with the hands that beat us and he might have. The hands that beat us are: any ten,any pocket pair higher than or equal to 77(77 being very unlikely since two of them are already out), the 2 possible straights made with 53 or 89 and any set. Crossing this with his likely range, we get 12.4% of all starting hands: 66+,44,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T8s+,98s,53s,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,T8o+, which is about 30% of his starting range, and so, like I mentioned earlier, we're still up about 70% of the time.
      * Then there's also the unlikely event that he rivers a flush,straight or 2 pairs/trips on the river, which I wouldn't worry much about even if there are 2 flush draws on the table,since he can only have one of them after all and it's a ~1/5 probability he completes it, if he actually has one. Against a better player on this turn we might either fold or raise for protection, depending on the info we have on him, but this is not a better player. This is a "macho".

      * To finally answer the river question, given our pot odds and the small percentage of hands that actually beat us, I think the best play here would be calling his likely river shove or any bet, absolutely regardless of the river card, since we can't realistically narrow his range down more.
      * If checked to us without us improving our hand, we should check because we will not be called down with a weaker hand, unless the opponent is on tilt or brain damaged, which is rarely the case at these stakes. If we try a small bet, the opponent might read this as weakness and go all-in, leaving us in an unpleasant spot, especially on a bad river, so I wouldn't recommend it.
      * If we improve to a straight or 3 of a kind(except if it completes one of the flushes), I'd go for a small bluff-inducing bet, since a shove will rarely be called and this opponent is more likely to shove than others. If we get 2 pairs I'd just check, given that the turn has brought us another possible straight if an 8 were to come on the river and either a 5 or a 9 would give him a straight.
      * If the river improves our hand but also completes a flush and it gets checked to us, I'd probably just check for safety. We already got a lot out of him if we're ahead and if we're not, we might as well avoid losing more.

      * See you in December! :s_biggrin:


      EDIT 1: added "*" signs at the beginning of paragraphs so it's easier to read the post.
      EDIT 2: stated I added "*" signs so that people won't worry I stole their ideas after i posted =)
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      there's nothing to analyze here and write a novel about this hand :)
      its simple, the villain called pre, so he has 58% range, if he bets every time you check to him, at every street, you just run in the equilator 58% on the board vs ur hand, if that is 50%~ or more you just go ahead and check/call all streets regardless of the board. thats the thing we know about him, he did bet so far every time when checked to.
      All the rest of the philosophy/theory you do beside this, is unreal, because you cannot know, you can only assume, which never leads to true/right decisions.
    • abhi147
      abhi147
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2011 Posts: 935
      Hey,

      I think the way hes played it looks like he hit a backdoor flush draw
      Ill call/shove any river that is not the spades

      If he hit an overcard and got lucky so be it

      MY best guess is he has a hand like A5 of spades or similar so he might also have straight draw with a flush draw and that is why he overplays his hand

      But honestly id still prefer a turn shove
    • NightShadePMC
      NightShadePMC
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 798
      Oh and the pre-flop play is so standard and logical that it's not even worth commenting about, but somebody said he would seriously consider 3-betting here. I totally disagree with the concept of trying to bluff a maniac with a spec hand, especially with a caller between us. I'm not saying it's necessarily a losing play, but it leads to very tough post-flop decisions and a big flop pot if he at least calls(which he is likely to do,given his extremely loose style), he will be tempted to 4-bet with all kinds of hands, which will lose us money even before the flop comes because we are forced to fold.
      The purpose of this 3-bet is usually either winning the pot pre-flop(which is not likely here) or winning the pot with a c-bet(which is again not likely against a maniac) and having an easy decision post-flop depending on how we connect. I just can't see what a 3-bet would accomplish here.