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Should I pull a suicidal bluff here?

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Opponent is 20/16. 37% raise Flop stat. I don't think he ever has any sets here besides JJ (his most likely hand IMO)

      I wonder if I should shove the River and try to fold him out of JJ. I think he should give me credit for KQ a lot of the time when I shove here but I'm not entirely sure.

      I also wonder how we should be playing lower sets here (everything seems to be bluff catcher). I said "CALL" in the chat while he was tanking. I think he doesn't have KQ at all besides KcQc which should raise larger IMO because it's the nuts and it wants to go for max value against everything else.

      Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1925725
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $255.60
      SB: $454.18
      Hero (BB): $547.50
      UTG: $368.84
      MP: $16.26
      CO: $308.61

      Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A:club: 7:club:
      UTG raises to $6, 3 folds, SB calls $5, Hero calls $4

      Flop: ($18.00) 3:club: 2:heart: T:club: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $12.03, UTG folds, SB calls $12.03

      Turn: ($42.06) 9:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $40.00, SB calls $40

      River: ($122.06) J:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $98.76, SB raises to $212, Hero folds
  • 2 replies
    • lnternet
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      Originally posted by mbml
      I think he doesn't have KQ at all besides KcQc which should raise larger IMO because it's the nuts and it wants to go for max value against everything else.
      Everything sounded good up to here :)

      Since he wants to raise small with his other value hands he should clearly also raise small when he has KQ to protect his "thin" check raises.

      Going through the hand

      Flop I don't like a donk bet there unless you know what you are doing. What I mean is that you donk a spread out range that allows you to have bluffs if a club comes; often I find people who donk there to be on a range of mostly set or flush and not enough other hands. And even if you know what you are doing I still don't love it.

      Turn seems good.

      River bet seems good. You don't have too much air there given the runout.

      You want to value 3bet the river with some hands (KQ, maybe Q8 87) so you have to bluff sometimes as well, otherwise you could be exploited. Since the sizing for a 3bet is very small you need very little bluff combos per value combo though, so you should not be bluffing very much. As such you can pick the absolute best bluffing hands here. I think that would be QJ or KJ, maybe in clubs, as they block both rivered top set as well as the KQ straight. Or if you want to fold out JJ then you don't want to block it, so maybe AxQc.

      If you 3bet bluff jam A7cc you could be potentially exploited as you would be bluffing too loosely. But a slight read, like you think he will play tightly against a river jam, can easily make it a +EV 3bet bluff jam. I can't help you making that read though.
    • TheLastNail
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 6,038
      F play is rly poor esp w the depth of everybody.

      c/c or c/r depending how wide of a range they have pf/betting and their reactivity vs delayed agression / potcontrol lines.

      also the clearer ur image is, the more u should be c/r rly.