This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] interesting preflop spot

    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $47.04
      SB: $25.10
      BB: $26.00
      UTG: $8.41
      UTG+1: $14.90
      UTG+2: $25.27
      Hero (MP): $30.41
      MP+1: $29.54
      CO: $10.31

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K:diamond: A:club:

      UTG raises to $8.41 and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero...?

      now well, utg's range should be wide enough and i want to call vs him.
      however what's the chance that someone behind will have the KK+ or maybe just ship QQ, AK?
      is the optimal play to call and fold to a shove/just fold/callcall?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Would help if you had reads though. I'll just put him on 77-KK/AJ+ (we should discount KK and AA to some extent because fish tend to get trappier with the monsters)

      Let's assume others will come along with QQ+/AK which is 2.6% of starting hands. There are 5 people acting behind you.

      We shove ourselves

      Chances of someone behind calling = (100%-2.6%)^5
      = 87.7%

      87.7% of the time, we put in 8.50 more, and get back 17$ X 53.8% = $9.15
      We win 65 cents

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.17% 39.31% 6.85% KK-77, AJs+, AJo+
      MP3 53.83% 46.98% 6.85% AKo

      12.3% of the time, someone goes all-in as well with QQ+/AK.

      3way all-in
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 31.50% 29.28% 2.23% KK-77, AJs+, AJo+
      MP3 23.96% 13.62% 10.34% AKo
      CO 44.53% 34.93% 9.60% QQ+, AKs, AKo

      Headsup All-in
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 38.82% 18.15% 20.68% AKo
      CO 61.18% 40.50% 20.68% QQ+, AKs, AKo

      * I"m just going to assume you have 100BB for ease of calculation

      Main pot: We put in 8.50, and get back 24% X 25.50 = 6.12. We lose 2.38
      Side Pot: We put in 15.50 and get back 39% X 31 = 12.09. We lose 3.41

      Total loss = 5.80

      Total EV of a call here: 0.877 ($0.65) + 0.123 (-5.80) = 57c-71c = -$0.14

      Pretty surprising result here. I was actually quite certain that this would be a call. Of course if you think UTG's pushing range contains more dominated broadways and fewer pocketpairs then it would be more of a call.

      Few things are not in your favour in this particular hand:
      -5 people left to act behind you
      -You are deep against some of those guys

      Of course many of my assumptions may not be right but this is a close spot and I'm leaning towards a fold now after doing the calculations.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Now let's assume you are in CO. 3 guys left to act behind you so chances of getting called = (0.974)^3 = 0.924.

      Total EV = 0.924 (0.65) + 0.076 (-5.80) =0.601 - 0.44 = +$0.161

      You probably should call from CO, and from the Hijack in this spot (Hijack should be the breakeven point)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tomaloc,

      Assuming that you have a lot of people behind you wouldn't really want to flat without having a hand as KK/AA which would rather a trap-flat. Though our hand is pretty vulnerable and we don't want to put ourselves into a spot where we actually go for Call/Fold. :D Rather force something like TT/JJ and maybe even QQ sometimes to fold directly.

      Best Regards.