[NL20-NL50] interesting preflop spot

    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $47.04
      SB: $25.10
      BB: $26.00
      UTG: $8.41
      UTG+1: $14.90
      UTG+2: $25.27
      Hero (MP): $30.41
      MP+1: $29.54
      CO: $10.31

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K:diamond: A:club:

      UTG raises to $8.41 and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero...?

      now well, utg's range should be wide enough and i want to call vs him.
      however what's the chance that someone behind will have the KK+ or maybe just ship QQ, AK?
      is the optimal play to call and fold to a shove/just fold/callcall?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Would help if you had reads though. I'll just put him on 77-KK/AJ+ (we should discount KK and AA to some extent because fish tend to get trappier with the monsters)

      Let's assume others will come along with QQ+/AK which is 2.6% of starting hands. There are 5 people acting behind you.

      We shove ourselves

      Chances of someone behind calling = (100%-2.6%)^5
      = 87.7%

      87.7% of the time, we put in 8.50 more, and get back 17$ X 53.8% = $9.15
      We win 65 cents

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.17% 39.31% 6.85% KK-77, AJs+, AJo+
      MP3 53.83% 46.98% 6.85% AKo

      12.3% of the time, someone goes all-in as well with QQ+/AK.

      3way all-in
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 31.50% 29.28% 2.23% KK-77, AJs+, AJo+
      MP3 23.96% 13.62% 10.34% AKo
      CO 44.53% 34.93% 9.60% QQ+, AKs, AKo

      Headsup All-in
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 38.82% 18.15% 20.68% AKo
      CO 61.18% 40.50% 20.68% QQ+, AKs, AKo

      * I"m just going to assume you have 100BB for ease of calculation

      Main pot: We put in 8.50, and get back 24% X 25.50 = 6.12. We lose 2.38
      Side Pot: We put in 15.50 and get back 39% X 31 = 12.09. We lose 3.41

      Total loss = 5.80

      Total EV of a call here: 0.877 ($0.65) + 0.123 (-5.80) = 57c-71c = -$0.14

      Pretty surprising result here. I was actually quite certain that this would be a call. Of course if you think UTG's pushing range contains more dominated broadways and fewer pocketpairs then it would be more of a call.

      Few things are not in your favour in this particular hand:
      -5 people left to act behind you
      -You are deep against some of those guys

      Of course many of my assumptions may not be right but this is a close spot and I'm leaning towards a fold now after doing the calculations.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Now let's assume you are in CO. 3 guys left to act behind you so chances of getting called = (0.974)^3 = 0.924.

      Total EV = 0.924 (0.65) + 0.076 (-5.80) =0.601 - 0.44 = +$0.161

      You probably should call from CO, and from the Hijack in this spot (Hijack should be the breakeven point)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tomaloc,

      Assuming that you have a lot of people behind you wouldn't really want to flat without having a hand as KK/AA which would rather a trap-flat. Though our hand is pretty vulnerable and we don't want to put ourselves into a spot where we actually go for Call/Fold. :D Rather force something like TT/JJ and maybe even QQ sometimes to fold directly.

      Best Regards.