Edge and Field Size

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Just a theoretical question here.

      Let's say that you consider yourself to be better than the average player in this hypothetical tournament. But of course there are players who are a lot better and also a lot worse than you.

      Let's also say that the prize schedule is done on a certain % of the players and is fixed eg. 15% of the field gets paid or whatever no matter how many people are in it.

      Is it better for a player with edge in a hypothetical tournament under these conditions to have lots of players eg 45000, or very few players eg 27., which one does your edge come through most in?

      I would think the advantage of the large field MTT is that there are so many fish busting out early, but there are also so many more chances to get bad beat because of the giant pool. In a 27 man Table Tournament you have less people to defeat to win, but you have to beat most of the field, you can't just outplay a certain amount of people, and you can't win as much.

      Given these conditions, which format makes use of a players natural abilities? I know the playing style is slightly different because the numbers of players decreases and this would be a huge change in 9 mans but for the most part, the whole 9 players to a table is the same, and what I want to ponder is how the player field size affects edge. Does anyone have any definitive answer for this, or do they both have balanced pros and cons with the only difference being a correspondence between variance and field size.

      I am a cash game player and am just curious as I play the odd tourney and find it easier to cash when the field is large.
  • 12 replies
    • meepwn
      meepwn
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2011 Posts: 1,410
      In a small tourney (9man, 6man) there is a sort of a maximum ROI of ~10% for turbos that is de facto the maximum achievable. A more realistic ROI is between 1-4%.

      In a very big tournament (2k players+) your edge is bigger, but the tournamnt can take upwards of 6 hours, and at the end only good players remain, possibly better than you. So the hourly rate and ROI drop. Also you would need a monstrous bankroll to play these.

      I think the optimal is 250-300 players, 10 or 12 minute levels. There are still fish when you reach the final table, but its also relatively easy to get there.


      The biggest edge will probably show in a slow, short handed tournament, but to play these efficiently, you can't play more than 4, so theres that.
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,242
      Good question!

      It very much depends on your perspective and your goals.
      If you play poker to have some fun and make the best out of it, while not playing it professionally, the smaller field sizes will give you faster success and a better shortterm income. The lower variance leads to constantly good results. Even if you play a smaller sample size it is very likely that you will have some profit.

      If you play poker professionally you will play a lot of tournaments. Therefore your sample size will be much bigger. If you take it from a long term perspective you will be better of with the bigger field sizes due to the top-heavy payment structure these tournaments have. You will win less often but way bigger. A conservative bankroll management is the key factor in this case. Longterm and over a big samplesize you will have more profit due to the top heavy payment structures that benefit better players in late game. For a hobby player the big field sizes are less interesting since you won't be able to beat the variance due to the lower sample size you are able to aquire.

      I hope I could answer your question. If you have further questions feel free to ask!

      @meepwn: Your ROI will be higher if the tournament is bigger - at least longterm. The hourly is something that is hard to calculate in big field tournaments.

      Regards,
      Asaban
    • UnrealZeal
      UnrealZeal
      Basic
      Joined: 07.10.2012 Posts: 5
      it's really based on the standard deviation of the tournament. The more players registered, the higher the variance. That's why you will make more money player larger games but at much higher risk. Risk and reward are two opposing forces that dictate the payouts. Higher risk means greater reward.

      In order to maximize your poker play you will need a general idea of your win rate as well as your standard deviation. Each tournament will have it's own standard deviation, but your play style will determine the exact s.d.

      For example, given the exact same ROI, a LAG player will have a much higher standard deviation than a TAG, so a LAG will make more money in large tournaments and a TAG will make more in small tournaments.

      Therefore a close examination of your playing style and win rate will tell you which games are optimum for you to play.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      The bigger the field the bigger your edge. Some really good MMT players have 50-100% ROI while good SNG players have 1-3% ROI's. If you even compare 9 mans to 180's where something like 20-30% is possible. Something very fishy like sunday million or WSOP ME you can have something like 200-400% ROI even.

      Basically the bigger the field, the bigger the edge, but on the other hand big fields create a lot more variance and they last longer which means you need 4-5times bigger ROI to get the same hourly.
    • genNNnious
      genNNnious
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2010 Posts: 43
      it does not matter large or small tournament you need to be in top 3 for making a lot of money.
      That mean that for larger size tournaments to be in top 3 you need to play agressive, but becouse of aggressive play you will most of the time be out. becouse of that you need big bankroll

      i have to say that i dont agree with MatejM47 that bigger the field the bigger your edge. anything else i agree 100 %. reason for that is in the bigger field playwill be longer (same buy in, same structure), when in the smaller field you can play a final table with a lot more blinds then in large. more bb you have the edge is bigger.

      becouse of these reasons i personally like playing on other sites then PS.
    • genNNnious
      genNNnious
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2010 Posts: 43
      becouse full tilt will be back on november 6, i would like to add to my reply that in rush poker tournaments it is much easier to have an edge on weaker players in large tournaments. becouse you can see a lot of hands and you will not be card dead for long period.

      for someone who is TAG winning player i prefer small field tournaments, but in rush pokers tournaments i believe the roi willl be much bigger in large tournaments.
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,242
      Just for your information:
      Zoom-Poker tournaments should be available soon as well. So prepare for some quick folding :tongue:
    • genNNnious
      genNNnious
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2010 Posts: 43
      great news
      do you have any idea when (approximately)
    • Fuzzylogicc
      Fuzzylogicc
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.09.2012 Posts: 5
      Imagine Hero has an edge to win each match with a probability of 0.51.

      When playing HU, Hero's ROI will be 2%. When playing 4-max, however, Hero wins the tournament with 0.51 * 0.51 = 0.2601 probability for four times the investment, which gives 4.04% ROI.

      This trend continues as field size doubles: 6.12%, 8.24%, 10.41% etc all the way up to 24.34% for 2,048 entrants.

      Increase Hero's win probability to 0.52 and this number increases to 53.95%; if you're crushing at 0.55 then we're looking at 185%. (Too bad that the variance and time investment also increase with the field size.)

      Even if things are more complicated in the real world (not winner-take-all, opponents will be tougher in the nth match than the first etc.) the general principle that ROI increases with field size will hold, assuming it is positive to begin with.

      The numbers above also show that the bigger your edge over the field is, the larger the relative increase in ROI will be.
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by Asaban
      Just for your information:
      Zoom-Poker tournaments should be available soon as well. So prepare for some quick folding :tongue:
      I'm eagerly waiting for this. :D

      Also, we will soon get Rush Tournaments back! (Along with our money :D )
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,242
      I don't have any further information on the specific date yet. Shouldn't be too far away though - afaik it's currently in beta testing.
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,242
      I found the relevant quote:

      ZOOM Tournaments (Beta)
      We are in the final stages of finalizing ZOOM tournaments on the TestPokerStars site and will invite players to test on the TestPokerStars site once we reach a stable point. We will keep you posted!


      Source: twoplustwo.com

      Regards,
      Asaban