[NL20-NL50] NL25 3b pot, hero call?

    • DimnjacarGogi
      DimnjacarGogi
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2012 Posts: 32
      $0.10/$0.25 Ante $0.05 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      HERO (UTG) ($65.50) 262bb
      CO ($44.97) 180bb
      BTN ($50) 200bb
      SB ($67.10) 268bb
      BB ($62.50) 250bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.60, 5 players) HERO is UTG 6:spade: 7:spade:
      HERO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, BB raises to $3.25, HERO calls $2.50, SB calls $2.50

      Flop: 10:heart: J:club: 5:diamond: ($10, 3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, HERO checks

      Turn: 6:heart: ($10, 3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $5.50, HERO calls $5.50, SB folds

      River: 2:heart: ($21, 2 players)
      BB bets $10, HERO calls $10

      SB is fit or fold fish.
      BB is 30/23, 3b 9, 430 hands
      Sqz 10, cb 3b pot 75%.
      Cb 69/42/33 (flop, turn, river)
      Check/folded 4/4 in SRP.

      Overall loose bad reg who really don't like folding and expect his squezze to have lot of broadways and TT+.

      PF: Maybe loose, but expect fish to be in pot also very often + should be able to outplay reg.
      F: No equity so don't want to take a stab 3way.
      T: Quite sure BB would cbet any value hand because fish is in, so would say his range is delay cbet with AK,AQ, few combos of Axhh, maybe something like 78s, 97s.
      R: He should've cbet on the flop most bckd FDs he has in range on the flop. So it's left something like few bckd flushes Axhh and AT which is hard to expect from nl25 reg. There is surely bigger number of bluffs. We are getting good odds.

      Thoughts?
  • 4 replies
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Quite loose open from UTG, and even looser call after getting squeezed, but we're deep with both of them, which gives us implied.

      Stab flop. What's the reason of all preflop action, if we dont try to steal the pot, when we get a chance to? SB will fold a lot, and pfa BB could also give up when not betting for value against the fish. By checking, we are giving up too...

      As played, turn should be a fold. I dont expect to see many bluffs this way, plus there are tons of bad rivercards for us, where we will know even less where we stand, so we have big reverse implied as well...
      If you want to continue on the turn, maybe raising could be a better option, we have a shitty hand, so I wouldnt mind turning it into bluff, and he could have a hard time to continue this deep with Tx f.e.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DimnjacarGogi,

      Just fold the turn, you can NEVER-EVER exclude from his range the draw just cause you would have CB that. Most of the draws I'd are even Checking the flop cause vs his and unless they have some other type of draw like GS they ain't CBetting it.

      Though meanwhile he could take pot control even with overpairs/mid-pairs etc, so I'd fold it on the turn than waste the money whereby I might have really little equity with such call-down.

      Best Regards.
    • DimnjacarGogi
      DimnjacarGogi
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2012 Posts: 32
      I disagree.

      Though meanwhile he could take pot control even with overpairs/mid-pairs etc


      Given everything we know (reg, cb 69%, 10% sqz, SB is fish) why would assume he 's pot controlling overpair or TP?
      Also only possible mid pair he has is ATs, but it's question that even best nl25 regs vbet them 2 streets in this spot. If mid pair means 77-99 that also doesn't have sense - he shouldn't be sqz that light + why would he bet them on turn and river?

      I'd fold it on the turn than waste the money whereby I might have really little equity with such call-down.


      His river range is something like this (and turn is similar or even wider):
      MP2 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% 7s6s
      BB 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% ATs, AhKh, AhQh, 9h8h, Ah4h, Ah3h, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh, AdQh, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQh, AcQh

      ...and probable this is too tight. I've put 3 combos of ATs what isn't very likely and only AhK and AhQ but it can be wider.

      Even if we add more value combos like JJ,TT, KJs our equity is still ~41%.

      We need only ~24% to BE. Can't find fold button here.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Given everything we know (reg, cb 69%, 10% sqz, SB is fish) why would assume he 's pot controlling overpair or TP?

      So what are you trying to point out with the CB? 69% isn't anything huge which indicates his Check behind range could easily be pot control line cause he clearly can't stand Check/Raise nor he ain't going to get called from a lot worse. Our calling range hardly contains a lot of PPs which hit this flop, especially TT/JJ.

      Also only possible mid pair he has is ATs, but it's question that even best nl25 regs vbet them 2 streets in this spot. If mid pair means 77-99 that also doesn't have sense - he shouldn't be sqz that light + why would he bet them on turn and river?

      Why would you exclude something like QT/KT from his range? And once again what's the purpose of CBetting with Tx hand here if you never make better hands to fold and not that many worse hands Call you nor you wont be able to 2nd barrel the turn aka wont make better hands to fold.

      Your range isn't that realistic either cause you remove all the pot control hands from his range and add mainly those which you have beat. What about some suited gappers which he could be barreling the turn as FD. What about the Tx hands which I pointed out nor we can't exclude QQ-AA combos neither from his range which take pot control line for being so deep.

      About break-even equity here, don't you think you need to add both streets cause you need to Call both streets Bet not just one street. If you calling the turn then obviously you have to Call also the river.