Overbets X Equity: text error or my misunderstanding?

    • boozaf
      boozaf
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140
      Good afternoon everyone

      So I just read the: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1678/1/

      At some point it is said:

      "This would mean: 4BB Openraise => 12BB 3-Bet => 30BB 4-Bet.

      Your opponent now has a difficult decision to make. If he pushes, you would have to pay another 70BB to be involved in a 200BB pot, which also means you need 35% equity for a call."

      ---

      In the referred example, both players have full stacks (100BB).

      So 4BB openraise (Hero stack remains 96BB), 12BB 3-Bet (Villain stack remains 88BB), 30BB 4-Bet (Hero stack remains 62BB).

      Pot is 46BB. So far so good.

      "If he pushes, you would have to pay another 70BB to be involved in a 200BB pot"

      If he pushes, the pot would be 46BB+88BB (from villain's remaining stack), for a total of 134BB. I would have to pay 62BB to be involved in an aproximately 200BB pot which supposedly means I need roughly 35% equity; but isn't actually that I'm paying 62BB to win 134BB so I would need 50% equity? ?(

      ---

      I'm not trying to be picky about the exact numbers, I just really got confused and didn't know where to post this (Feedback and Suggestions in case this was a text error or No Limit in case of my stupidity regarding calculations)

      ---

      Thanks for the time and patience :)
  • 3 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,870
      no because the 62bb won't vanish into nowhere. :f_biggrin:

      one way to think about it is that you never-ever need to be right more than 50% when calling a bet that finishes the hand action.

      why? because you are always getting at the very least "even money" - you invest the calling amount to win at least the amount that villain is betting. of course there'll be dead money from blinds and previous bets so the actual % you need is always going to be lower.

      let's say you are on the river and villain makes some huge overbet like 69bb into a 20bb pot, if you call and happen to have the best hand you are getting his 69bb plus the amount in the pot.
      how often do you have to be right? 69/(69+69+20) = ~43.7%.

      this doesn't really apply to bets that don't close the hand action (ie, flop continuation bets) because of the threat of future bets - calling a flop bet doesn't ensure that you're going to see a showdown for that price.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Good afternoon?!

      It's 9.38 PM (evening) :o

      :D
    • boozaf
      boozaf
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      no because the 62bb won't vanish into nowhere. :f_biggrin:

      one way to think about it is that you never-ever need to be right more than 50% when calling a bet that finishes the hand action.
      Yeah, I figured that second part out one day before making the post (I've been playing no limit for about 2 weeks, now). *feeling like the Genius meme right now*

      Curious thing is how I figured that out and still made such a stupid question (since the presupposition needed to understand that makes the answer to my question logically the same to what I've just understood). I ALMOST feel terribly embarassed. :f_mad:

      Still, thanks a lot for answering ;)

      P.S.: It was afternoon in here. :D