Can you legitemately tell the difference between a bad run from poor play?

    • suaveplayer
      suaveplayer
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2009 Posts: 109
      Downswings really have a strong effect on my mind (despite reading Tendler´s book).

      It really crushes me because I really think that it´s just a run so bad I can´t help but lose, but so does think every player who is losing during a certain stretch.

      It is really annoying as hell when I can´t figure out why I can´t beat even idiotic drooling players. It sure feels like you miss an insane amount of flops. You want to tell yourself it´s just bad luck, but who knows, there is no hard proof that it is just bad variance.

      I wish there was some sort of tool that could actually tell you what sort of luck you are experiencing during a certain stretch. It would not make you win money per se but could ease the mind a little bit.

      Thanks for reading one more downswing report.
  • 13 replies
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
      Silver
      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      Well there is all in ev, but that doesn't do anything to show coolers or just missing the flop time after time. Don't think there is anyway to work it out easily
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,057
      In your session reviews, don't just look at the big losers.

      Look for places where you called river bets where your showdown value was minimal.

      Look for places you chased draws w/o valid pot odds or implieds.

      Look for places where you played reasonable hands, but played them OOP against people who were unlikely to let go.

      Did you play passively where you should have played aggressively?
      How about vice-versa?

      If there is a lot of the above going on, your play could stand improvement.

      OTOH, if you were making good choices, but getting beat on the turn or river, after getting there with sound hands and sound flop play, meh -- it's just poker.

      If you're unsure, post the hand and let the coaches tell you.
    • jaeden23
      jaeden23
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.06.2012 Posts: 59
      I believe if you remain humble about your game it's easy to tell bad variance from bad play. You mention 'idiotic drooling players', I think this is an example of what is clouding your mind, if you don't beat someone you think you should it makes it quite easy to blame variance for bad play.

      If you remain harsh about your game and keep the ego low, in most cases it's pretty clear cut when you are running bad.

      -My 2 cents.
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Hi suaveplayer,

      I think the perfect tool you're looking for is a hand evaluation coach.
      Post lots of hands where you think you played really well only to get done by some recreational player and see how many times the hand evaluator tells you otherwise. Remember, we can play a hand really badly and still win it, but our brain tends to be focused on the result instead, so we dismiss it.

      I do feel your pain though, as no doubt many others do. I went from owning to a -10bb/100 loser between January and August this year and it even wore me down. It's only the last month that has turned kind of 'normal' so to speak. I did however have the gumption to realise that a lot of the losses were my mistakes as well as really horribad 2 outer stuff.

      Use the coaches - a lot. If you can, get a database analysis done, you will be amazed at what they can find.

      Best regards and keep the chin up,

      Mal.
    • suaveplayer
      suaveplayer
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2009 Posts: 109
      Thanks bennisboy, VorpalF2F, jaeden23, and gadget51 for caring enough to respond.

      It´s pretty easy to just blame variance but keep on not putting the hard work in, I´m guilty of this can´t deny.

      Originally posted by jaeden23
      You mention 'idiotic drooling players', I think this is an example of what is clouding your mind, if you don't beat someone you think you should it makes it quite easy to blame variance for bad play. If you remain harsh about your game and keep the ego low, in most cases it's pretty clear cut when you are running bad.
      You are right indeed. Ego in this game can do nothing but retard your progression.

      Thanks again everyone. It´s time to put the ego aside and get back to the hard work.

      Best of luck to all.
    • gp00053
      gp00053
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 154
      Bogdan has a great video series on variance.
    • erptech
      erptech
      Gold
      Joined: 15.03.2008 Posts: 659
      And how long is this stretch?

      I'm on a 14 months downswing that was a combination of bad run, bad play, permatilt, and not investing enough time in improving. More recently I'm actually running far worse than ever before, but the difference is that now I'm playing better than ever.


      "Someday you will run worse than you ever thought possible" is the only sentence that can describe what I went and still am going through.
      You need to accept this aspect of poker and try to perform well despite everything turning against you.

      Downswing is a great time to improve.
    • gp00053
      gp00053
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 154
      Originally posted by erptech
      And how long is this stretch?

      You need to accept this aspect of poker and try to perform well despite everything turning against you.

      Downswing is a great time to improve.
      I like gadget51 answer " get a hand evaluation coach ". If you do it sooner than later, first thing you find out is your down swing is a combination of bad play and swings. Second thing you see is your Down swing doesn't last as long
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Gold
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,940
      Well actually PT4 got this function, only surports straights flushes and sets tho.
    • DanielOlaf
      DanielOlaf
      Basic
      Joined: 27.09.2012 Posts: 2
      but getting beat on the turn or river, after getting there with sound hands and sound flop play, meh -- it's just poker.





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    • Pe6o0o
      Pe6o0o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 461
      Can you legitemately tell the difference between a bad run from poor play?


      Yes you can, if you take the time to analyze your game!
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Hmm just wondering, what was the biggest difference in EV won and net won you guys had. i play nl2 and within 3 days (around 1500 hands) i went from $4 above EV to $7 below EV at 888 poker. Is that even possible. I mean 5.5 buyins below EV in 1500 hands gosh hopefully its just a normal downswing. I mean, I'm totally fine with losing due to bad play but to get sucked on the river everytime it's so sickening.

      lost all my 3 AA hands today against flushes two pairs. unbelievable. and almost every board is WET. This is the first time it's happening in so many days. I feel something is wrong. can i be so unlucky.

      edit: Alright it's time to leave the tables. no point pushing my orange curve up more and green curve down. still interested to know what's the worst -ev downswing u guys had though
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,057
      Originally posted by tommygecko
      Hmm just wondering, what was the biggest difference in EV won and net won you guys had. i play nl2 and within 3 days (around 1500 hands) i went from $4 above EV to $7 below EV at 888 poker. Is that even possible. I mean 5.5 buyins below EV in 1500 hands gosh hopefully its just a normal downswing. I mean, I'm totally fine with losing due to bad play but to get sucked on the river everytime it's so sickening.

      lost all my 3 AA hands today against flushes two pairs. unbelievable. and almost every board is WET. This is the first time it's happening in so many days. I feel something is wrong. can i be so unlucky.

      edit: Alright it's time to leave the tables. no point pushing my orange curve up more and green curve down. still interested to know what's the worst -ev downswing u guys had though
      Don't worry about your EV line.
      If you're deep stacked a swing of 11 buy-ins is easily managed

      Do you have equilab?
      When thinking of AA on wet boards, check this out:


             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    77.38%  77.22%   0.15% { AdAh }
      UTG+1  22.62%  22.47%   0.15% { 9c8c }


      pretty good eh?

      But on this flop:

      Board: 7:club: 6:club: 2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    43.74%  43.74%   0.00% { AdAh }
      UTG+1  56.26%  56.26%   0.00% { 9c8c }


      your Aces are actually BEHIND.

      So the "bad beats" aren't always.
      Still sucks

      "Alright it's time to leave the tables."
      Yes. Park the bus.

      When you do get back to the tables, try to select a better one.
      Look for tight on your left, loose on your right.
      If you can't select ahead of time, just leave a table after a couple of orbits, and find a new one.

      If your room has few open tables, and long waiting lists join a few waiting lists, and when they come available, drop your worst table and join the new one.

      HM2 (and I think PT4) have "table scanners" that look at the existing tables and rate them ahead of time. This is really only at its best if you have a few hundred hands on several players at the table, though.