[NL2-NL10] JJ vs cold 4bet from nit NL16

    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,458
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1936146
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $11.47 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 47
      CO: $16.00 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: NaN, Hands: 22
      Hero (BTN): $6.16 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 4.6, Hands: 11612
      SB: $25.95 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 13, 3B: 1, AF: 1.4, Hands: 283
      BB: $41.47 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 10, 3B: 7, AF: 1.3, Hands: 88

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BTN with J :spade: J :heart:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.48, Hero raises to $1.44, SB raises to $3.04, 3 folds


      I think this is an easy fold but i just wanted to check, he has a 3bet of 1% over 283 hands which is insanely low, and has yet to 4bet after 7 oppitunities so i think my jacks are crushed here and hes probably on KK+


      Alex :)
  • 3 replies
    • ctstc
      ctstc
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      283 is no Sample, but 1% is very low. Normally you have to push here, and I think I would do it, if he only pushes QQ+, AK you have 36,19% Equity and you need 36,4%. I think the 1% is only because of the Samplesize.

      But a fold isn't worst with this stats.
    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Platinum
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,150
      Hey,

      I have a problem calculating the needed equity for a push. It's different for me.

      (6.16-1.44) / (6.16*2 + 0,08 + 0,16) = 4.72/12.56 = 37.58%. If I am not mistaking it's 39.53% with rake discount.

      I'm not sure but it looks to me like folding would be better than 4bet. Did I make a mistake somewhere?
    • ctstc
      ctstc
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      Yeah, you forgot the Deadmoney from CO, and the SB is already included in the 6,16$ you can win from SB