[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 KJo

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BB: $56.60 (113.2 bb)
      UTG: $154.96 (309.9 bb)
      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $54.97 (109.9 bb)
      BTN: $67.04 (134.1 bb)
      SB: $60.49 (121 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J K
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN folds, SB calls $4.25, 2 folds

      Flop: ($11) T 7 T (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB folds


      Anon table.

      MP is a weaker reg, folds a lot, that's why I used KJo to bluff 3bet him. SB also looks like a reg on small sample, but no reads.
      I have to admit I didnt complicate flop play too much, I have only position and initiation, but no showdown value, so bet and hope for the best... :D
      Which could be him folding better hands, as AK/AQ/AJs/KQs. If he calls, he has some PPs a lot, so I can barrel J/Q/K, maybe A.
  • 9 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      Seems to be fine as you say he is a weak reg so we can expect very often from his side to see Fit/Fold. :)

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      What about the flop cBet vs SB cold call? Is his range not likely more shifted towards mid pockets such as TT-QQ since he calls OOP?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      What about the flop cBet vs SB cold call? Is his range not likely more shifted towards mid pockets such as TT-QQ since he calls OOP?
      Standard being IP and having decent equity whatever range he has + fold equity. Plus read what hero wrote about villain.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I just thought:
      COvsMP = because of the involved positions the ranges look stronger overall.
      CO still left to act = harder for villain to call with a wide range
      Villain is OOP = hard to play non-pair hands such as AK profitably by just hoping for a hit

      All these factors combined make me think that we have to have seen SB playing spewy or loose in such spots before we can assign him any other preflop range than JJ–QQ, maybe TT but doubt it. Even if he knows that CO folds a lot and if he knows that we know it as well and thus have a wider range in that spot, it's difficult for him to find a standard call with AQ/AK in such a spot. I'd rather expect him to 4Bet/bluff those hands for blockers.

      The OP didn't really give a lot of information about SB, so the only reason for me to think otherwise would be if you or any other experienced player could just tell me/reassure me that despite it being a very difficult spot to be in, people still may play with a bit wider ranges than JJ–QQ in that villain's spot quite often.

      I mean, if my assumption is correct more often than not in the longterm, I don't think we have all that much fold equity on the flop + a K or an A does not appear often enough on the turn for us to be able to 2nd barrel here. + a free river card with our weak backdoors alone does not seem like a flop-cBetting justifiable factor.

      Yes, the results of this hand don't exactly prove my point, but then again – is it really standard for anyone in SB's spot to cold call a 3Bet OOP with the openraiser left to act with AQ+? We can just make a note and move on.

      Though if it is indeed the case that they do call AQ+ or even worse there, just say so and I rest my case :) I am certainly no NL50 player yet to have a good understanding of the default ranges there.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      I am never-ever Checking behind in that spot here with the backdoor equity + fold equity we have here. We can very often even make him fold those kind of holdings. ;) And even if not we still have got decent equity.

      And please provide the information for me as well if you knew how SB played. :D I see that we didn't have any information, just expected him to be a reg.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      1) Do my above-mentioned factors make sense regarding SB's likely cold calling range OOP in this preflop spot? I.e., is my range assumption on average not rather justified, given that we are talking here about an NL25 reg, or am I unjustifiably overvaluing my opponent's competency?

      I just thought:
      COvsMP = because of the involved positions the ranges look stronger overall. CO still left to act = harder for villain to call with a wide range
      Villain is OOP = hard to play non-pair hands such as AK profitably by just hoping for a hit


      2) If the above mentioned factors make sense and indeed may indicate that more likely than not we are dealing here with a range of TT-QQ, if not just JJ-QQ, where is my analysis flawed:

      TT-QQ is never folding on this flop. I think we can pretty much assume that. Our equity vs that range on this flop is quite terrible:


      Board: T:club: 7:club: T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    15.33%  15.10%   0.23% { KhJc }
      MP3    84.67%  84.44%   0.23% { QQ-TT }


      Thus the only advantages of betting the flop is a free river card + initiative on the turn for another barrel and maybe even a 3rd barrel. Now, whether or not these advantages are justifying a cBet depends on whether or not our opponent is likely to give us credit postflop because if he is likely to call us down in disbelief with an overpair on multiple streets on many board structures I am not sure if our backdoors are strong enough to cBet in the first place:



      Very few turn cards give us any significant backdoor equity and if the guy doesn't believe us all that often (and so far where I have played NL25 the people seem to still call us down light more often than not, I think. Might not be sure though because I've tried to keep my crazy multibarrel moves to a minimum lately) and calls our bet on, for example the 9c all the time with his JJ, we lack the implied odds for the times when we hit because it is difficult to get all that much out of him on the river anyway after all this strength, thus we'll be restricted to making small bets with a spiked K (assuming that bigger bets given the previous action just seem too strong and obvious unless we have certain dynamics/history going on, which is a rather specific spot to be in) and it would still be difficult for him to call a big 3rd barrel even if we hit a well disguised hand such as a backdoor SD because our range looks so strong there and we get a lot of fold equity by using a big betsize.

      Of course we could barrel any A and any Q for fold equity + as a semi-bluff, but they don't appear often enough. Do they?

      Although one idea would be that we could barrel pretty big postflop and confidently because we know that his range is pretty capped and we show a lot of strength. If he calls us down then of course it's sad because we have made a wrong guess, but then we just adapt and start using the same sizings and aggression with our valuerange, possibly widening it in order to accomodate to our opponent's light calldowns in future.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Nice topic. I would like to see Veriz answer to the last post, specificaly what he thinks about triple barreling the villain capped range.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      I think it's a mistake to assign such a narrow range like QQ-TT to a mostly unknown player in a certain spot...

      I dont remember the exact details, but I had very small sample on him (like 15-20 hands), and his stats were decent, but that's all I have. He could be anything later on...

      Plus even if we assume he is a reg, it's not like every "reg" plays the same, I've seen quite some examples on weird coldcalling hands from opponents who seemed decent to that point, like even low PPs, Axs, SCs.

      I dont say his range is definitely this wide, but certainly wider than just QQ-TT. Why not 99? Even AA/KK slowplay. Even AK/AQ, which he doesnt want to go broke preflop, but feels too strong to fold. I agree, that oop coldcalling these and just hope to hit is mainly wrong, but we cant assume everyone thinks the same as ourselves...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by pcfmcc02
      I think it's a mistake to assign such a narrow range like QQ-TT to a mostly unknown player in a certain spot...

      I dont remember the exact details, but I had very small sample on him (like 15-20 hands), and his stats were decent, but that's all I have. He could be anything later on...

      Plus even if we assume he is a reg, it's not like every "reg" plays the same, I've seen quite some examples on weird coldcalling hands from opponents who seemed decent to that point, like even low PPs, Axs, SCs.

      I dont say his range is definitely this wide, but certainly wider than just QQ-TT. Why not 99? Even AA/KK slowplay. Even AK/AQ, which he doesnt want to go broke preflop, but feels too strong to fold. I agree, that oop coldcalling these and just hope to hit is mainly wrong, but we cant assume everyone thinks the same as ourselves...
      Pretty much it, clearly Hero had good thoughts in his mind and we can very easily get rid of his 3bet-calling range very easily on further streets. Not to mention how much equity we have with our hand actually whilst 2 more cards to come.

      Can't imagine ever villain to put only on nutted range only, the guy even may have just KQ/AQ or whatsoever total crap which insta-snap-super-duper-easy-folds. :D