triple merge river checkraise

    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $111.07
      SB: $251.20
      BB: $524.70
      Hero (UTG): $281.70
      MP: $210.74
      CO: $252.66

      Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with K:diamond: Q:club:
      Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, CO calls $5, 3 folds

      Flop: ($13.00) T:diamond: 5:club: K:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $9.00, Hero calls $9

      Turn: ($31.00) 3:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($31.00) 3:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $25.00, Hero raises to $65, CO calls $40

      Villain is 22/16, seems like solid TAG. Not ruling out AK preflop from his range but I think he rarely has it after checking back Turn.

      Has extremely high Turn barrel stat of 90%, plan was just to c/c 3 streets.
      Given that I think I have best hand here 90%+ of the time, I thought that I could either

      1) Get KJ to make a curiosity call
      2) Fold out KQ
  • 14 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Ohh the dreaded triple merge river check-raise.

      Looks ok.

      One question,

      Is he the type of player who is gonna be going for thin value and then bluff-catching with stuff like Tx, JJ, QQ, KJ, or is he more likely to check-back and/or bet/fold despite the fact he might call a river bet with these hands.

      Really just a question of whether betting is higher EV than check-raising which depends on villain. He might call a lot wider than he'd bet even if he's capable of going for thin value etc.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      TX isn't betting all the time, he may/may not have JJ/QQ in his range.
      I think KX is almost always betting cos my hand looks so much like QQ and JJ.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      What if he jams
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      i think its fine, very small sizing otr tho no?
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      I don't like KQ for a flop check, I don't think it's strong enough to play it as a slowplay (like right here on the river you can barely check raise). But if are exploiting some read then that's fine.

      River XR is good but go bigger like pot sized raise, $106. Or even bigger. You need to rep Tx turned into a bluff.

      Really just a question of whether betting is higher EV than check-raising which depends on villain. He might call a lot wider than he'd bet even if he's capable of going for thin value etc

      Don't bet river yourself, that's silly. What are we supposed to be bluffing with? How is he ever calling a bluffcatcher there?
    • Targetme
      Targetme
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Originally posted by ihufa
      What if he jams
      hes not bluffing we fold we lost hand anyway?
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Originally posted by ihufa
      What if he jams
      I think 'wiiiiiiii induced some spew' and snap call?
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      dont think he ever jams, 55 bets turn and even A3 is just gonna call.

      If he does we have a bluffcatcher, so you either make a read or call at the appropriate freq to not allow him to bluff.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by lnternet
      Don't bet river yourself, that's silly. What are we supposed to be bluffing with? How is he ever calling a bluffcatcher there?
      I don't think this is silly. I think it is dependant on levels, also history, and above all your opponent's river tendencies.

      If you are taking a game theory approach there are some hands you are check-raising or check-calling flop even if you cbet with them the majority of the time. You can have bluffs by the river.

      If villain is good I don't think he should take OOP flop floats out of your range either on such a board. You can have bluffs by the river.

      Villain has a high turn barrel as discussed, therefore only very specific hands might be checking back the turn. Usually medium showdown value.

      If we find ourself in a situation where we are good very often, villain likely has a worse made hand but will check back the river instead of going for thin value, we should bet for value ourselves. It's not necessarily relevant whether villain is good enough to fold, we are freerolling against this type of opponent.

      This is why my questions were geared towards the type of villain our hero was facing. You will notice I made no suppositions regarding the actual best play, just posted some hypothetical scenarios that might aid analysis.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Nope, Internet is right.

      Why would I c/c nothing OOP when I could just cbet myself? I would never do that with a gutshot
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by mbml
      Nope, Internet is right.

      Why would I c/c nothing OOP when I could just cbet myself? I would never do that with a gutshot
      If I'm playing against an opponent who assumed I had value every time I float the flop and then bet the river (internet) you can bet your ass I'm gonna take this line as a bluff. You are basically admitting your flop check-range here is super unbalanced by posting this. Probably fine at 200nl though.

      When playing slightly better opponents you need to take lines they play the most poorly against, not the most "standard" lines. In fact, if you are mixing up your play (as you should be against a better opponent) you can be calling/check-raising with hands like JQ, AJ a percentage of the time on the flop even if your standard is to cbet.

      I basically said something akin to "if villain is NEVER betting but SOMETIMES calling, you should bet for value". That's a hypothetical statement, and also a no-brainer.

      I didn't make any supposition about what the best play is, so how can I be right or wrong, or "silly" (internet)?

      Gonna take my posts elsewhere, gl.
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      I agree with w34z3l. I like leading that river, but ofc it makes sense only if we have something like AJ, AQ in our flop c/c range. Not really sure do we need c/r range on the river at all. KQ is the nuts vs his range most likely, but when he notices it, he could take that line with some nutted hands and jam the river with super high frequency. I think we don't wanna be in that spot with KQ. Even if he doesn't, betting still might be higher +EV because he will check back that river very often.
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      the alleged bots have actually been playing with OOP floats as the preflop aggressor, check calling hands like J9 on this texture. If we do have a well constructed flop XC range then betting river is cool.

      My base assumption would be that people don't have enough river air here to value bet KQ though. But I could be wrong, maybe you can rep air here and get a call from Ahi or 77.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      well i agree with what you said about balanced c/c range but would you really bother to construct such a range vs a normal TAG?