[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - AQ standard beat right? :(

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1940855
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $25.77 - VPIP: 46, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.1, Hands: 70
      UTG: $31.68 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 46
      MP: $28.87 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 0.9, Hands: 66
      Hero (CO): $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3.6, Hands: 521092
      BTN: $25.00 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 2, AF: 0.0, Hands: 148
      SB: $25.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 1.3, Hands: 146

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q :club: A :diamond:
      UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.25, 3 folds, UTG calls $2.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($7.60) 7 :heart: 2 :club: Q :heart: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $4.00, UTG raises to $28.43, Hero calls $17.75 all in

      Turn: ($51.10) 2 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($51.10) 6 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)
  • 7 replies
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      we rep a decent amount of strength by 3betting utg open/mp call. utg can certainly call wider than usual in this spot as he most likely realizes that mp will almost always flat/fold rather than 4bet.
      also am assuming that villain would always 4bet AA, and 4bet KK most of the time, so he rarely has those.

      even if we give villain a decently wide check jamming range that looks something like: AQ/KQs and suited heart A (say A2s-AQs)/KJs-KTs) he open calls with, and QQ/22/77 we still need 30.7% equity.

      Villain has only a 1.7 AF over 46 hands (small sample)
      and vs villains perceived range we have 44.25% and therefore should call

      however i cant see villain's utg range opening range being 22% of hands, and will therefore have less Ax fd opens, and may even fold the vast majority of Axs to the 3bet and continue with only ATs+, therefore making things the flop call off/fold decision much closer.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,888
      he looks super weighted towards strong hands.

      QQ/77/22 7 combos, A K 1 combo+1 combo for each FD that you want to add...
      add a few splits/KK+/KQ as you wish...

      maybe i'm just saying that because raise ship with very strong hands is a line that i love to use myself, as people like to level and put you on a draw :D
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Farmarchist,

      Not that huge fan of shipping da money here cause it's very capped range which we have beat. Not sure if this guy even calls KQ type of holdings. So we are just at the best facing a overcard+FD type of holding.

      Though of course depends how we saw him, what we expect him to be calling with etc. According to that we estimate our go-broke range which might even be possible if we also assume him having worse Qx hands.

      Best Regards.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      He looked fishy that's all I know...

      The range I thought he could do this with was:
      - some KK/AA
      - Mostly AQ
      - some KQs, MAYBE QJ
      - some FD's
      - small part spew like AhKx
      - maybe sets...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      He looked fishy that's all I know...

      The range I thought he could do this with was:
      - some KK/AA
      - Mostly AQ
      - some KQs, MAYBE QJ
      - some FD's
      - small part spew like AhKx
      - maybe sets...
      What made you assume that he looked fishy?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      He looked fishy that's all I know...

      The range I thought he could do this with was:
      - some KK/AA
      - Mostly AQ
      - some KQs, MAYBE QJ
      - some FD's
      - small part spew like AhKx
      - maybe sets...
      What made you assume that he looked fishy?
      I don't remember clearly what hands I saw him playing but as you can see, the vpip/pfr is already kinda fishy. I also think he folded 0/2 to 3bets. This is already a good indication.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      He looked fishy that's all I know...

      The range I thought he could do this with was:
      - some KK/AA
      - Mostly AQ
      - some KQs, MAYBE QJ
      - some FD's
      - small part spew like AhKx
      - maybe sets...
      What made you assume that he looked fishy?
      I don't remember clearly what hands I saw him playing but as you can see, the vpip/pfr is already kinda fishy. I also think he folded 0/2 to 3bets. This is already a good indication.
      Taking those stats as a fish I'd say is already a leak, those are basically common LAG stats who just started a session, maybe not even a LAG but rather just a TAG.