[NL2-NL10] AA nl5

    • iruzl
      Joined: 27.05.2011 Posts: 83
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

      UTG+1: $5.00 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 6, 3B: 2, AF: 2.5, Hands: 135
      MP1: $2.62 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 1.3, Hands: 423
      MP2: $13.27 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 2.4, Hands: 1419
      Hero (CO): $5.17
      BTN: $14.28 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1.9, Hands: 350
      SB: $1.51 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 167
      BB: $4.00 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 9, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 192
      UTG: $5.10 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 3.6, Hands: 520

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with A :diamond: K :diamond:
      2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $2.62, Hero calls $2.22

      Flop: ($5.31) 2 :heart: 4 :heart: T :diamond: (2 players)

      Turn: ($5.31) 6 :heart: (2 players)

      River: ($5.31) A :heart: (2 players)

      Call or fold pf?
  • 3 replies
    • Erevos
      Joined: 09.01.2011 Posts: 129
      He seems to be a tight, solid regular. EV is negative in this case in my opinion. So fold and wait for better spots.
      You can always try Equilab and sometimes take the rake under consideration.
    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      hey iruzl, seems like you made a mistake in the title which should be AK nl5..

      if villain was full stacked i agree with what Erevos said. it sucks 3bet/folding with AK, but i think because people will be calling OOP so often with weaker hands here it is okay - especially since people's 4bet ranges are often capped to AK/QQ+ against which you don't do so well.

      that said, since villain is just a little over 60bb deep, i doubt he is a solid reg. i think you have to call here to his shove. it's something you should account for when 3betting him. he's pretty short and so your plan should be 3bet with the intention of getting it in vs him rather than 3bet/folding.
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,850

      first let me begin by saying that if you think that he is following basic midstack strategy and as such has no 3bet-calling range (he either 4bets or folds when facing a 3bet), in general just calling his openraise is better.
      by 3betting you're going to isolate yourself against a strong range, while by calling you keep his weaker aces in play.

      some factors against just calling are aggressive squeezers behind, or being out of position.
      some factors for 3betting are that you know that he's weak and just calls too many 3bets with weakish hands, or that he's very aggressive and can 4bet bluff, or that he's tilting, or that there's a huge fish on the table which just calls any openraise with anything.
      all in all, in this particular spot i prefer a call.

      now as played... this is just a math problem. :f_biggrin:
      you need to call $2.22 into what is going to be a ($2.62+$2.62+$0.07) = $5.31 so you need 222/531 = ~41.8% equity not counting rake.

      he looks like an okay midstack regular so i would expect him to stack off with AK, QQ+ in that spot. if he's playing by the pokerstrategy mss beginner charts that is also the recommended shoving range for these positions :D

      against that range you are pretty much exactly getting the equity:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    58.10%  38.81%  19.28% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
      MP3    41.90%  22.62%  19.28% { AdKd }

      so whatever you choose should be fine.
      folding should be slightly better though because of rake. it's also the lower variance option, if you care. :P

      i'll finish by saying that not all micro midstack regs like to 4bet AK and QQ in this spot, some may just call or even fold.
      that said, some others may also 4bet with AQ or worse because they are aggressive or tilting or just crazy. so in the end it somewhat balances out :D

      [edit: improved quality]