[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 ATo

    • livethelife7
      livethelife7
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,093
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Hand afspelen

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      CO:
      $28.30
      BU:
      $9.65
      SB:
      $28.74
      BB:
      $20.68
      MP3 (Hero):
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T, A.
      Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.6) Q, 7, A (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.00, BB calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.6) 9 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB calls $2.75.

      River: ($9.1) 8 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB calls $2.75.

      Final Pot: $14.6.

      BB is fish: stats 33/4 over 28 hands.

      I open ATo utg because the fish in the blinds. I'm trying to get here thin value from Ax, Qx.

      nh?
  • 10 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      well you lose to A7-AK. You still beat A2-A6 which i assume he would have all combos of those. he shouldn't have too many 2pairs and sets since he should raise turn I think.

      Seems fine, I think a fish would not fold QX on the river against your sizing. Would check river if i were OOP to induce from busted draws though.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Originally posted by mbml
      well you lose to A7-AK. You still beat A2-A6 which i assume he would have all combos of those. he shouldn't have too many 2pairs and sets since he should raise turn I think.

      Seems fine, I think a fish would not fold QX on the river against your sizing. Would check river if i were OOP to induce from busted draws though.
      Do you like the river sizing mbml? Not concerned about getting bluff raised? (I think I might be paranoid regarding this subject...)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello livethelife7,

      Loose players often times don't bluff in those spots. :) Though myself I'd rather skip the thin value-bet on the river and be happy to even get a free showdown. :P Too greedy isn't too good either. :D

      Instead bet the flop & turn a bit bigger and get value from the fish.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Though myself I'd rather skip the thin value-bet on the river and be happy to even get a free showdown. Too greedy isn't too good either.


      Is this that dangerous a spot to be in? Can we not try to get just a little tiny bit more value?
      If they indeed don't bluff often at this spot, we can likely get more money from weaker Ax, Qx, maybe JJ, TT, even weaker 9x.
      Sure, the 8 river improved a part of his range as well, but we have to assume that villain may even donk some of those hands in order to aviod a check behind.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Though myself I'd rather skip the thin value-bet on the river and be happy to even get a free showdown. Too greedy isn't too good either.


      Is this that dangerous a spot to be in? Can we not try to get just a little tiny bit more value?
      If they indeed don't bluff often at this spot, we can likely get more money from weaker Ax, Qx, maybe JJ, TT, even weaker 9x.
      Sure, the 8 river improved a part of his range as well, but we have to assume that villain may even donk some of those hands in order to aviod a check behind.
      I don't understand why people want to get "tiny bit more value" but they don't Bet flop & turn bigger. :( Clearly have easy value-bet on early streets...
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I don't understand why people want to get "tiny bit more value" but they don't Bet flop & turn bigger. Clearly have easy value-bet on early streets...


      I agree that flop+turn should have been bet a bit bigger. But even if we bet the flop+turn bigger, is there really no room for another small valuebet vs his weaker Ax + Qx and maybe even worse holdings?
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      .
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      I don't understand why people want to get "tiny bit more value" but they don't Bet flop & turn bigger. Clearly have easy value-bet on early streets...


      I agree that flop+turn should have been bet a bit bigger. But even if we bet the flop+turn bigger, is there really no room for another small valuebet vs his weaker Ax + Qx and maybe even worse holdings?
      Okay, lets make it this way. Please give me the range with equilab that you can bet for value. Want to see vs what range you being ahead there. :P
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I hope I understood you correctly.

      This is the range that I would expect villain not to fold vs a small river bet:


      Board: A:diamond: Q:club: 7:club:  9:diamond:  8:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    52.25%  49.55%   2.70% { AcTh }
      MP3    47.75%  45.05%   2.70% { JJ-99, 77, A2s+, KQs, Q9s+, JTs, 97s, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, ATo+, KQo, QTo+, JTo }


      Am I missing something? Though of course it looks like a very thin bet anyway + we may still get bluffed out of the pot from time to time + villain may not call with some of the weakest hands of this range because even such a player like him may realize that we are betting for value there.

      EDIT: I even noticed that we have a tied pot 2.7% of all times – that even means that we have the best hand less than 50% of the cases, right? So it's not a good valuebet at all?

      Of course, it could also be the case that villain would have raised a very strong hand such as AQ or a set either on the flop or the turn + he may be 3Betting hands such as AQ or AK preflop, BUT, we don't know that + it still makes the valuebet rather thin and by checking behind we even get information.

      Is my analysis accurate?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Seems like you really tried to squeeze to get the equity here. :D You really think that he calls all those hands. :f_eek: