HM2 Stats

    • Stabillo
      Joined: 30.06.2011 Posts: 63
      I am currently playing NL10 and I am running about 4BI over EV. Does this mean that i should be prepared for a big downsing in the near future ?

      Also I am in the red with my non-showdown Hands. What is this supposed to mean?

      Thank you in advance!
  • 1 reply
    • VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,829
      Hi, Stabillo
      I'm moving this to a forum where it might get a better response.

      In the meantime, I'll try.

      First, the notion that a run of good luck will be followed by a run of bad luck -- or vice versa -- is known as "the gambler's fallacy".

      No matter what your luck has been over the last x000 hands, the odds of winning the next one will be exactly the same as they always are.

      That is why, over and over, you see advice here to play each hand properly and individually.

      Secondly, your "EV Line" shows all-in EV. Unless you or an opponent went all-in before the river, the EV Line moves exactly in sync w/ the showdown or non-showdown lines as appropriate for the hand.

      Whether you are way above or way below may be as much a reflection of your opponent's play as your own.

      For example,
      If you are often getting in badly vs a bunch of nits who fold, your EV line will be completely and totally useless for evaluating your decision to shove.

      It may very well be true that shoving ATC against some players is a winning move, cuz they get scared and play back.

      If they ever DO get a hand, and play back, it will look you "got it in bad", even though it was one hand out of many.

      Your non-showdown winnings tend to go down if you are playing solid ABC poker.
      General advice is to play each hand "properly" taking into consideration your cards, your position, your stack size, and your opponents. "Trying to make my red line go up" is not considered a valid criterion for making poker betting decisions.

      Enjoy the game!