[NL2-NL10] FH vs turn donk NL16

    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1945211
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $21.80 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 2.8, Hands: 232
      CO: $22.13 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 10, AF: 2.8, Hands: 359
      Hero (BTN): $6.16 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 14, 3B: 8, AF: 5.0, Hands: 16372
      SB: $6.92 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 26, 3B: 6, AF: 1.9, Hands: 258
      BB: $21.07 - VPIP: 63, PFR: 3, 3B: 2, AF: 2.1, Hands: 89

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BTN with 4 :diamond: 4 :spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.32

      Flop: ($1.44) T :diamond: 2 :diamond: T :spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80, BB folds

      Turn: ($3.04) T :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

      River: ($4.64) K :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $4.84, Hero calls $4.08 all in



      I think i definiately made a bad call on the river as yeahhh the kings a good call ro bluff at but why would he take this line as a bluff. My question was can i call the turn? And if i do call the turn, how do i play a river, its pretty much always gunna be an overcard, do i just have to give up on the turn because the only think i beat here is 2x, 33 and his bluffs which he can have 55-99 here as well, maybe even JJ.
  • 3 replies
    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Platinum
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,078
      Do those guys on blinds fold to cbets? I think we could consider a fold preflop since our playability postflop sucks and even if we hit a set we won't get paid that much due to our stack anyway.

      As played I would call turn too with intention to call small river bet as well. On river he could have better PPs and I don't expect him to pot bet bluff river. I would fold there.
    • ctstc
      ctstc
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      Preflop is ok, but on the Flop you can check behind against 2 opponents.
      The donk on the Turn is very often a good Hand, he can bet any Pocketpairs here, and nearly all of them are better than yours. I think you can even fold here, but on the river it is definitly a fold
    • BC1989RF
      BC1989RF
      Gold
      Joined: 09.04.2010 Posts: 845
      okay say he plays 100% of Kx from {KQ-K8} this way and Kx :diamond: .
      that would be like ~ 50
      and another 30 Tx combos.
      add some WTF combos like 77, AA ~ 10
      ----------
      ~100 combos that beats us.
      i think these are very loose assumptions and this would prolly be closer to 80.

      he pots it so we're getting 2 : 1 we need to find 40ish combos that we beat.
      i think he calls a good 500 combos preflop. dno how fit or fold he is post flop tho - youd need to give us his stat vs cbet.

      but i think these players dont fold any pairs and overcard(s) on this flop.
      so a good 200 combos is prolly calling otf. minus 80 = he has 120airballs we need him to take this exact line with (min donk turn & pot bluff river).

      now 80/120 = 67%. seems v optimistic.

      think i fold. a call is not a big mistake tho as some players do v erratic stuff on these kind of paired/trips board textures.