SnG variance?

  • 15 replies
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
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      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      No, it's pure talent.
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      now I was pushed with trips by runner runner 4 cards.
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      now I lost AQo vs A9s
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      now I lost coinflop late.
      8:2 my coinflop result today..
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      My SnG wizard says my play is not too bad, but coin flop result and dominating hands result is tooo bad
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
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      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hahah : )


      Hello, Gonchan! Why don't you post a graph with it? You might also open a block, by the way, to share your development as a poker player!

      To answer your question:

      if you really made 100BI+ for 131 games on the 7$ BI-yes, this is a variance. The good part of it. It seems weirdly and almost impossible to me though. That's why I asked for an evidence.

      Cheers!
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867

      This is my shit and go session result haha

      So 100 game +10BI is almost impossible so -20BI downswing is more impossible? I already contact pokerstars support but they said it only "randomness".
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      haha, it's possible. Definitely don't think it's because online poker is rigged! But it's 100 BI+ my friend, not just 10 : )
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      u dont know the variance yet friends
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      Hmm, so if I get positive (large) ev,
      Can I continue this rate?
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
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      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Originally posted by Targetme
      u dont know the variance yet friends
      I've had 150-160 BI downswing and several 100BI+ on ongame. I know variance : )

      @ Gonchan-it's possible you beat the 7$ and continue to have positive ROI over a decent sample, but making 100BI+ over 100 STT games is not something to be expected all the time. Nobody can maintain this win rate.
    • Warrior21
      Warrior21
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.09.2012 Posts: 13
      In over 1000 $3.5 6max sngs on Stars i have been allin 1968 times. I should be winning around 85000 chips instead i am losing 20000 chips. I ve been in allin situations HU 481 times and i am running -60000 chips EV adjusted including losing 40 allins IN A ROW. In a total of 61362 hands i should be winning 92000 chips but instead i am losing over 20000 chips. After sending many emails to their support and destroying one laptop in the process i decided to quit or lose my sanity. The only thing that saved me is that i had 100 Bins bankroll. Anyway i switched to cash games expecting the same kind of thing in the near future. Was this result of variance or somthing else? I dont know.
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
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      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      kurrkabin

      horrible 150BI downswing :f_mad:

      Ok, I'll continue, thanks guys :f_biggrin:
    • MP89EST
      MP89EST
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2008 Posts: 385
      Originally posted by Warrior21
      In over 1000 $3.5 6max sngs on Stars i have been allin 1968 times. I should be winning around 85000 chips instead i am losing 20000 chips. I ve been in allin situations HU 481 times and i am running -60000 chips EV adjusted including losing 40 allins IN A ROW. In a total of 61362 hands i should be winning 92000 chips but instead i am losing over 20000 chips. After sending many emails to their support and destroying one laptop in the process i decided to quit or lose my sanity. The only thing that saved me is that i had 100 Bins bankroll. Anyway i switched to cash games expecting the same kind of thing in the near future. Was this result of variance or somthing else? I dont know.
      1000+ games not enough of a sample for anything(I personally dont even now what to consider as a sample after few swings some of my friends have had, maybe 10k games). Poker variance can be sometimes cruel, so its important to have strong mindset. Bothering Stars support and destroying laptops isnt a sign of strong mindset. 100k cEV swings so super standard.
      Also these kinda swings and your reaction show that you have still too evolve as a player since on such low limits you IMO in stars can expect ROI around even over 10%(bobulo has 10% ROI in 15k 15$ 6max SNGs in Stars, I personally havent played Stars 6seats so just searched for some crushers ROIs), and with that kinda ROI your graph will be rather steady upward slope with smallish swings by normal std.

      There is a article on variance in SNGs http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/1072/1/ and Tim64 also made video about SNGs and variance http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/24492/
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Originally posted by MP89EST
      Originally posted by Warrior21
      In over 1000 $3.5 6max sngs on Stars i have been allin 1968 times. I should be winning around 85000 chips instead i am losing 20000 chips. I ve been in allin situations HU 481 times and i am running -60000 chips EV adjusted including losing 40 allins IN A ROW. In a total of 61362 hands i should be winning 92000 chips but instead i am losing over 20000 chips. After sending many emails to their support and destroying one laptop in the process i decided to quit or lose my sanity. The only thing that saved me is that i had 100 Bins bankroll. Anyway i switched to cash games expecting the same kind of thing in the near future. Was this result of variance or somthing else? I dont know.
      1000+ games not enough of a sample for anything(I personally dont even now what to consider as a sample after few swings some of my friends have had, maybe 10k games). Poker variance can be sometimes cruel, so its important to have strong mindset. Bothering Stars support and destroying laptops isnt a sign of strong mindset. 100k cEV swings so super standard.
      Also these kinda swings and your reaction show that you have still too evolve as a player since on such low limits you IMO in stars can expect ROI around even over 10%(bobulo has 10% ROI in 15k 15$ 6max SNGs in Stars, I personally havent played Stars 6seats so just searched for some crushers ROIs), and with that kinda ROI your graph will be rather steady upward slope with smallish swings by normal std.

      There is a article on variance in SNGs http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/1072/1/ and Tim64 also made video about SNGs and variance http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/24492/

      Pro post! Congrats!