[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - 77 - turn straight - worst river

    • DavidDorky
      DavidDorky
      Platinum
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      OnGame
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG DavidDorky ($10) 100bb
      UTG+1 tupsen87bb ($11) 110bb
      CO -pardog- ($10) 100bb
      BTN Biryuk ($3.35) 34bb
      SB thart_x ($13.10) 131bb
      BB jbami ($10.39) 104bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DavidDorky is UTG 7:heart: 7:diamond:
      DavidDorky raises to $0.30, 1 fold, -pardog- calls $0.30, Biryuk calls $0.30, 2 folds
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      OnGame
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG DavidDorky ($10) 100bb
      UTG+1 tupsen87bb ($11) 110bb
      CO -pardog- ($10) 100bb
      BTN Biryuk ($3.35) 34bb
      SB thart_x ($13.10) 131bb
      BB jbami ($10.39) 104bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DavidDorky is UTG 7:heart: 7:diamond:
      DavidDorky raises to $0.30, 1 fold, -pardog- calls $0.30, Biryuk calls $0.30, 2 folds

      Flop: 6:spade: 9:heart: 8:heart: ($1.05, 3 players)
      DavidDorky bets $0.50, -pardog- calls $0.50, Biryuk calls $0.50

      Turn: 5:diamond: ($2.55, 3 players)
      DavidDorky bets $1.75, -pardog- calls $1.75, Biryuk folds

      River: 6:heart: ($6.05, 2sdsd players)
      DavidDorky checks, -pardog- bets $4.55, DavidDorky folds

      Flop: 6:spade: 9:heart: 8:heart: ($1.05, 3 players)
      DavidDorky bets $0.50, -pardog- calls $0.50, Biryuk calls $0.50

      Turn: 5:diamond: ($2.55, 3 players)
      DavidDorky bets $1.75, -pardog- calls $1.75, Biryuk folds

      River: 6:heart: ($6.05, 2 players)
      DavidDorky checks, -pardog- bets $4.55, DavidDorky folds
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      CO: 44/22 - 27 hands

      I think until the river is a standard line.

      But what about the river game? What is the best move here and why?

      X/f is too weak here, or not?!

      If after my river x villain bets only half< pot, x/c is okay?


      Ty!
  • 4 replies
    • DavidDorky
      DavidDorky
      Platinum
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      P.S.:

      IMO villain's range is: 66,AhKh,A7s,KhQh,K7s,QhJh,Q7s,JhTh,J7s,T7s,5h4h,74o+

      With this he is 70% ahead.

      That's realistic here?
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      hello!

      your hand conversion seems to have somehow duplicated everything so i'll repost for our own convenience. :f_biggrin:

      OnGame
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG DavidDorky ($10) 100bb
      UTG+1 tupsen87bb ($11) 110bb
      CO -pardog- ($10) 100bb
      BTN Biryuk ($3.35) 34bb
      SB thart_x ($13.10) 131bb
      BB jbami ($10.39) 104bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DavidDorky is UTG 7:heart: 7:diamond:
      DavidDorky raises to $0.30, 1 fold, -pardog- calls $0.30, Biryuk calls $0.30, 2 folds

      Flop: 6:spade: 9:heart: 8:heart: ($1.05, 3 players)
      DavidDorky bets $0.50, -pardog- calls $0.50, Biryuk calls $0.50

      Turn: 5:diamond: ($2.55, 3 players)
      DavidDorky bets $1.75, -pardog- calls $1.75, Biryuk folds

      River: 6:heart: ($6.05, 2sdsd players)
      DavidDorky checks, -pardog- bets $4.55, DavidDorky folds
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      now on to the evaluation...

      preflop and flop play seem fine assuming that they are weak players.
      on the turn though you should bet bigger for that very reason. :f_biggrin: at least $2 to go.

      river is interesting.
      it's tough to give these villains a range :P but you should be consistant, ie if you think that he can slowplay sets on this flop then you should also add 99/88.
      i wouldn't expect so, i expect the range that he gets to the river with to be roughly something like:


      Board: 6:spade: 9:heart: 8:heart:  5:diamond:  6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    70.15%  62.69%   7.46% { 7d7h }
      MP3    29.85%  22.39%   7.46% { TT, A9s, K9s, JTs, T9s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, Th7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, JTo, 87o, 76o, QdJh, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QcJh, QdTh, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTh, QcTh }



      i added some gutshots, top pairs and removed flopped twopair+ because i expect him to just raise the flop.
      first thing is, can we get enough worse hands to call a river bet? his river continuing range vs a bet may be something like:


      Board: 6:spade: 9:heart: 8:heart:  5:diamond:  6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    41.18%  26.47%  14.71% { 7d7h }
      MP3    58.82%  44.12%  14.71% { TT, A9s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, Th7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, 87o, 76o }


      okay, so even if we keep a lot of top pairs in we are not in very good shape here. so it's better not to bet.

      so what about a check/call? as played we need to be ahead 455/1515 = ~30% on a call.
      of course he is not betting with all the hands that he gets to the river with. what we can know for sure is that weakish pair hands will check behind and straight or better will bet. then it all depends on how many missed straightdraws he could bluff with.

      if you think that he was passive then this is a very easy check/fold.
      but if you think that he was aggressive then we see that he could have enough of missed JT and maybe some gutshots, and this is obviously a great card for him to bluff with a missed straight. so it could even be a check/call in that case.
      i wouldn't be too afraid of fullhouses since most hands that make one would have raised the flop.

      just check/folding though should definitely be fine and most likely would also be my choice against unknownish villain.
    • DavidDorky
      DavidDorky
      Platinum
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      Thank you for this great evaluation!

      Everything is clear. :)

      GL!