[NL20-NL50] nl25sh - AJcd

  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Farmarchist,

      If you assume to have enough of fold equity and assuming he is CBetting wide then sure we can threw a Check/Raise. But what makes you barrel any turns/blanks? Explain me.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Definitely betting any club and T on the turn.

      But what about Q and K turn cards? Seems somewhat close/difficult to decide.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Definitely betting any club and T on the turn.

      But what about Q and K turn cards? Seems somewhat close/difficult to decide.
      Lets wait for Farma answer as well, then we can continue the discussion. :) Good that you explain your thoughts still, well done!
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Farmarchist,

      If you assume to have enough of fold equity and assuming he is CBetting wide then sure we can threw a Check/Raise. But what makes you barrel any turns/blanks? Explain me.

      Best Regards.
      Probably because we will look really strong and he can fold something like TT/JJ OTT or A9... Even if he folds a straightdraw/flushdraw it's good for us. If he has a really strong hand like a set there's a big chance he would reraise the flop so we can already eliminate some of those combo's.

      The only thing that only makes me 2nd barrel club turns is the fact that he can still be somewhat fishy and calldown overpairs, so I prefer a safer approach vs unknowns. I also think barreling a T on the turn isn't that good cause it hits his callingrange.

      I would also barrel Q/K turns cause he'd fold 9T/A9, TT/JJ..
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      If he has a really strong hand like a set there's a big chance he would reraise the flop so we can already eliminate some of those combo's.


      Would villain's best line with a set in this hand really be going broke already on the flop vs a check/raise?

      The board is very draw heavy and protection is important, but what good does a reraise do if it likely just forces all the draws and weaker hands out of the hand anyway? Why not call and keep all the opponent's bluffs and semi-bluffs in? He still can hit his full house and then make his opponent pay in the case this opponent (in this case – us) does hit a flush or a straight in the course of this hand.

      And even if going broke is the best play with a set, we can't assume that villain necessarily plays like that. We just simply can't discount sets out out of his range that carelessly.

      We can, however, likely discount 67 (maybe not 6c7c) from his range because it is hard to call with a straight on such a dangerous flop – only bad cards can come, he can't improve and going broke makes more sense because he beats all the sets + sometimes even stacks 98 (whereas 2/3 of his set combos would, however, block 98 quite well, which is another reason for him to call with a set instead of going broke – fewer hand combos that he has beat).

      I also think barreling a T on the turn isn't that good cause it hits his callingrange.


      It does hit a part of his calling range, but it still doesn't hit his whole range.

      The problem with checking the turn is that we most likely very rarely see the river card because our opponent bets and we just don't have the implied odds, whereas we still have some equity in the hand with an OESD (low implied odds though) + a few possibly live overcard outs.
      On the other hand though, we really have very little fold equity. At least it seems that it is not enough to compensate for the low implied odds our draws have for completion + for the equity that we have on the turn vs his potential range (I hope I have not missed some combos):


      Board: 8:club: 5:club: 9:diamond:  T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    21.21%  20.25%   0.95% { AcJd }
      MP3    78.79%  77.84%   0.95% { 88+, 55, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s+, 97s+, 7c6c, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T8o+, 97o+ }


      That said, is it not too weak to check/fold on the T(non-club) on the turn?

      If it is not, then really, it seems that for the flop check/raise to be +EV, we have to have quite some fold equity because even if we catch such a seemingly nice additional equity granting turn card, we can't even profitably barrel on it. We basically rely on our often unclean overcard outs + the backdoor FD, which appears ~1/4 of all times. That doesn't really sound all that great + villain's cBetting range on this flop texture might not even be super-wide.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Turn as a ten is clearly not the best card to barrel even if we get extra equity. It also hits hardly hits range and I don't really see why we should even take a look what equity we have against flop calling range. :P

      So mainly what kind of cards we are barreling are the and most likely some overcards as mentioned above.