5CD MTT question, wich cards to exchange?

    • Metamorphis
      Metamorphis
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2011 Posts: 47
      I'm BB and 3 people limp in. I got this hand:

      5:heart: 8:heart: 5:spade: J:heart: K:spade:

      If I change 5:spade: and K:spade: I remove my weak pair and reduce my chances dramatically of getting two pair or trips but I got a weak chance of hitting the flush. Not to mention that if 3 players exchange 1 card, there is also the chance that 55 might be good if all they did was limping on draws, not to mention the fact that if I get the flush without an ace kicker I might be outkicked or run into someone with house (alltho' it's relatively rare, it seems to happen often enough) and I risk to lose more of my chips than I otherwise would have.

      Because of this I've come to the conclusion that if I'm BB with 55 and 2 cards away from a flush, I always exchange 3 cards instead of 2 and I often win more than I lose doing it like this. But.. is it the ''right'' thing to do?
  • 3 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Drawing 2 to a flush has worse odds than hitting a gutshot.

      The odds of getting 2pr or better drawing 3 is about 29%

      The odds of drawing 2 to a flush is about the same I'm guessing as getting a runner-runner flush in hold'em -- about 4%

      The relative value is important though.
      You've only got 5s

      Don't bet the farm...

      OTOH, if you DO hit your flush, nobody's going to see it coming when you draw two and re-raise. You're repping dealt trips if you do that. Will they believe you?
      Probably not unless you raise over those limpers. Can you do that?

      How often will that have to work?
    • Metamorphis
      Metamorphis
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2011 Posts: 47
      Sounds like the most profitable thing to do most of the times is keeping the low pair and hope for the best. Thanks alot for your input kind sir.
    • Huricano
      Huricano
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2010 Posts: 2,228
      Always draw to a pair even 6-way with 2 :diamond: 2 :heart: 8 :club: 7 :club: 6 :club:
      IO will never cover your odds for improvement.

      Just make sure you don't 10-bet/shove your trips of dueces after draw.