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variance of BB/100

    • kesgab
      Joined: 24.05.2007 Posts: 217

      I think i have an interesting question here:

      Does anybody knows how big is the variance of a big blinds won per 100 hands?
      I guess the bb/100 value has a gaussian (or normal) distribution which has a parameter called variance i think. It indicates very well how broad is the range of the possible bb/100 values.

      The thing why i am interested in it is because i usually have a hard time after finishing a session with loss. I know that it is part of the game, but it's still too hard for me. And psychologically it would be a great help for me if i could see a probability distribution about my sessions' winnings/losses.
      Something like this (or a bit nicer :) ):
      ---- | --------- 
      -------------| ----------------- 
      -------------------------- | ------------------------------- 
      -30bb....................0 ....10bb ...........30bb 

      This way i could say for example that i loss 40% of my sessions, which would help me accept my losses.

      So for example i would like to know if i win 10 BB on average (in 100 hand or in a session), how big is the variance parameter. Is it 10 or 20 or even 30?
      If anybody has any inormation about this please share it!

      I am gonna count it for my statistics probably, but i am not sure i will succed or have enough patience for it :)

      best regards,
  • 1 reply
    • swissmoumout
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      You can't calculate it, it's way too complicated. You can however calculate all-in luck, that's what pokerEV does (it also includes probability since the last version).
      PokerTracker also has data on sessions (it also tells you how many you win and lose), so if you have a big sample size and some SQL skills, you could graph that and it would likely look like your ascii graph ^^