[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH bottom set on monotone board

    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($29.75)
      Hero ($10)
      CO ($10)
      BTN ($9.93)

      Dealt to Hero 9:heart: 9:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, SB raises to $1, fold, Hero calls $0.70

      FLOP ($2.10) 9:diamond: A:diamond: T:diamond:

      [color=red]SB checks, Hero bets $1.60, SB raises to $5, Hero ?



      Villian is:

      22/21/9.6
      67%cb
      0.8AF

      Might be a bit lose, but called pre for set value. When he checks flop bet for value/protection.

      Given his x/r size and stacks never folding in this spot... So what worse hands can he have? AKdx? Can I fold here?

      Should I make flop sizing smaller?
      And should I fold pre until we get deeper?
  • 6 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      Easy shove. very likely AxKd would take the same line and you´re really at bad shape if he has there AA or TT. Also you can sometimes see there ATs hand that has 4 outs to improve.

      best regards,
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Hi,

      Easy shove. very likely AxKd would take the same line and you´re really at bad shape if he has there AA or TT. Also you can sometimes see there ATs hand that has 4 outs to improve.

      best regards,
      But aren't we way behind against AA/KxKd/TT/AxKd? like 65/35

      And does villain 3b mp opens oop w/AT?

      Or am I just trying to level myself into folding lol...
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      You are still ahead :)

      If you think he might 3bet TT+ KQs AKo, and he would shove TT, AA/ KK QQ JJ AKo with a diamond then you are slightly better than a coinflip, getting 50.7% equity.

      Your worst case would be that he doesn't have KQs in his preflop 3bet range, and he doesn't shove QQ/JJ with a diamond. In that case, you are getting 47% equity.

      Given that you are getting better odds than this, it would still be a shove.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by MisClick
      You are still ahead :)

      If you think he might 3bet TT+ KQs AKo, and he would shove TT, AA/ KK QQ JJ AKo with a diamond then you are slightly better than a coinflip, getting 50.7% equity.

      Your worst case would be that he doesn't have KQs in his preflop 3bet range, and he doesn't shove QQ/JJ with a diamond. In that case, you are getting 47% equity.

      Given that you are getting better odds than this, it would still be a shove.
      +1
      I also think it is very rare situation when you are against higher set or made flush, so I would also recommend shoving there for value. For example if board was 9cTdAd you would not really b/f your set the same situation.

      best regards,
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Originally posted by MisClick
      You are still ahead :)

      If you think he might 3bet TT+ KQs AKo, and he would shove TT, AA/ KK QQ JJ AKo with a diamond then you are slightly better than a coinflip, getting 50.7% equity.

      Your worst case would be that he doesn't have KQs in his preflop 3bet range, and he doesn't shove QQ/JJ with a diamond. In that case, you are getting 47% equity.

      Given that you are getting better odds than this, it would still be a shove.
      +1
      I also think it is very rare situation when you are against higher set or made flush, so I would also recommend shoving there for value. For example if board was 9cTdAd you would not really b/f your set the same situation.

      best regards,
      Good points. He showed up w/TT so guess I'm being too results orientated and levelling into thinking b/f is better

      Cheers!
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      I kept thinking about this hand, lol.

      It all boils down to: is he 3betting AKo pre from the SB? If he doesn't, then the worse case scenario AA,TT,KK with a diamond (super nitty). In that case, you are getting 3:1...you can take a look at this 3bet oop, however, I think it is safe to assume you are not v. that kind of player as his 3bet is large enough already :D and in that case 3betting AKo from the sb seems to be included in his range.