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[NL20-NL50] FR50 TT one over

    • circoflax
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $54.90 (109.8 bb)
      MP2: $8.84 (17.7 bb)
      MP3: $54.73 (109.5 bb)
      CO: $89.31 (178.6 bb)
      BTN: $47.22 (94.4 bb)
      SB: $60.70 (121.4 bb)
      BB: $58.43 (116.9 bb)
      Hero (UTG+1): $84.73 (169.5 bb)
      UTG+2: $45.92 (91.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T T
      Hero raises to $1.75, 5 folds, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($4.25) 3 Q 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

      Turn: ($9.25) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($9.25) 5 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $7.50, Hero folds

      Villain is nitty reg 16/12/4/AF 1.1/7k hands. On the flop he's folding most of the hands that I beat, but may bet with a pair if I check. Once he checks back the turn I figure I'm good. The 5 on the river doesn't change much so my plan is pretty much the same as on the flop, I don't think I'm getting called by worse pairs since my hand looks so much like TT-JJ. I was calling a small bet though, cause maybe he is autobetting some pair there. I was really surprised by the big bet. Could he have 55? I don't think he bets a Q that big, because he wants to get called by TT-JJ. Is this guy with AF=1 making a move? I don't think so.

      Vs missed CB on the flop he bets 20%, but I think it's ok for me to call there since he is betting his pairs to protect against AK-AJ. Afq river 21.

      Should I just bet the river half pot and hope I get called and not raised. I don't think these guys are ever making a move on me there but he could still have a Q. So I think the probability that a worse hand is betting that river is bigger than getting called by worse if I bet.
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      a worse hand is not calling your river bet. so betting is bad. The board is so dry and you rep a queen really hard.

      i also think that this bet/check/bet line is usually some pot controlled queen from nits. so you have an easy c/f cos they dont take this line as a bluff.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello circoflax,

      Nah, seems to be fine. No point to Bet the river whilst nothing worse calls. :) Doubt that he is bluffing either the river, just tries to gain value from you with the Check behind.

      Best Regards.