[NL2-NL10] NL4SH - AA - fold in 3b pot

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Flop: I think villain is capable of having the following range: QQ-66,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo

      Is this reasonable? What would you give villain here?

      My line on the F is just to b/f because:
      1) value/protection vs weaker pairs and draws
      2) I don't think villain is aggressive enough to x/rai with worse ( TP / draws for eg)
      3) vs a x/rai I think villain will show me 99/88/TT very often

      Turn: Lots of hands get there (AQ/JJ/QQ/KQ). I am only ahead of KJ or AJ. I think b/f will be expensive and not many worse hands can call. My plan was to just x/beh and x/f R to most bets unless I hit a set. I did not plan to bluff induce, I don't think villain is aggressive enough.

      Should I just b/f anyway?

      River: If villain makes a thin value here with KJ then calling river is profitable. If not it is a must fold. If he only makes a thin value bet with AJ then it is also a fold because I am not getting the required pot odds given my equity vs opp's range. I need about 25% right?

      1) Villain "value bets" AJ/KJ:

      Board: 9:heart: 8:club: T:diamond:  J:spade:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { QQ, 77, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh }
      CO     33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { AdAc }


      2) Villain "value bets" AJ and x/c's KJ

      Board: 9:heart: 8:club: T:diamond:  J:spade:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    85.71%  85.71%   0.00% { QQ, 77, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, AhJh, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh }
      CO     14.29%  14.29%   0.00% { AdAc }



      PartyGaming - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $4.23
      SB: $2.75
      BB: $4.73
      UTG: $6.04
      MP: $4.21 31/22/1/12/30/461 hands - LP
      Hero (CO): $4.00

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has A:club: A:diamond:

      fold, MP raises to $0.16, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.34

      Flop: ($1.06, 2 players) 9:heart: 8:club: T:diamond:
      MP checks, Hero bets $0.50, MP calls $0.50

      Turn: ($2.06, 2 players) J:spade:
      MP checks, Hero checks

      River: ($2.06, 2 players) 2:diamond:
      MP bets $0.98, fold

      MP wins $1.96
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I think your pre-flop range is reasonable. I personally think he might 4-bet with QQ and also with AK

      I would prefer betting flop 0.6$ and since there should not be too many T9 or 98 combos in his range I would likely play for stacks- if I loose then only 88/99. Players can sometimes attack these boards, since AK missed and it shows also a lot of profit if we b/f there aces.

      I agree that standard line would be check back turn and folding to river bet, but that case you´re giving up the pot. Mostly players should not bluff there, so you should be fine checking turn and folding river- also if you want you can always mix up checking back KQ, AQ or sets.

      I don´t think you can bet turn, since you´re not ahead 50% that makes turn bet profitable, so only reason to bet turn would turn your hand into bluff and try make two pairs, 7x or sets to fold.

      best regards,
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Thanks Kaitz,

      I personally think he might 4-bet with QQ and also with AK


      The only reason I include these in his range is because I think he can sometimes flat AK/QQ. If I think he almost always 4b's then I would exclude them.

      I would likely play for stacks- if I loose then only 88/99.


      Ah, this makes sense. Is this because he has fewer combos of hands that beat us than in a normal raised pot and just because we don't expect him to be calling 3b's with those hands?

      As a rule of thumb, should we be more willing to play for stacks in 3b pots?

      I don´t think you can bet turn, since you´re not ahead 50% that makes turn bet profitable, so only reason to bet turn would turn your hand into bluff and try make two pairs, 7x or sets to fold.


      This makes a lot of sense. Don't think I would try it against this villain however.

      Cheers
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      general suggestion is that you need very good reason to b/f strong overpairs (especially KK/AA) in 3-bet pots. If players are nits and only get all-in with sets, then it is fine, but against some looser opponents you should see enough times worse hands, that bet/shove is usually the better play

      You miss or have enough times marginal hands which you can b/f

      best regards,