[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max, 77, set 3barrel vs R raise

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

      MP: $15.89 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 16, 3B: 12, AF: 1.8, Hands: 101
      CO: $32.44 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 21, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 34
      BTN: $10.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 17, 3B: 10, AF: 1.9, Hands: 276
      SB: $31.61 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 32, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 34
      BB: $10.17 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 8, AF: Infinity, Hands: 18
      Hero (UTG): $14.01

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 7 :club: 7 :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, 4 folds

      Flop: ($0.75) 3 :diamond: K :spade: 7 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, MP calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.75) 5 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, MP calls $1.50

      River: ($4.75) 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.80, MP raises to $13.59, Hero calls $7.91 or folds?

      River:
      I need 28% equity to break even.
      On the Turn Villain probably folds out 79s and 99, so I think he will have
      at least a Kx hand here. Something mid strenght,
      because he calls, but set for ex. would/could raise.
      So, he picks up equity on the river.
      Question is if he has only KQs, KJs in his preflop flatting range or also Hands like K8s+.
      I assume that only Khxh raise River from all Kx hands.

      Here are 2 examples:
      1. Villain has K8s +
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% 7s7c
      MP3 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% K9s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh8h

      I'm slightly +EV, let's say it's 0EV. [28% vs 33%]

      2. Villain has KQs, KJs
      So, I'm dead. Zero equity, when he folds or calls Kx hands without a flush,
      but raises Khxh.

      Conclusion:
      - If 0EV is the best outcome from a call, then fold is a better alternative, also 0EV, but less variance.
      - Don't hope for a K9s hand., think about preflop flatting ranges. Even weak TAG's won't flat K6s, for ex.
      - Might be interesting to use x/r AI on turn, but this OP might not be a floater type, seemed passive.

      PS. Maybe even AhKh.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Anger86,

      The problem is that he isn't really bluffing here. FD also completes which could be in his calling range as K:hX. Therefore I might even be towards crying fold than a Call. Can't see many hands what we have beat.

      Best Regards.