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[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max, AQs, 3bet pot, T bluff AI +EV

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

      UTG: $10.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 18, 3B: 13, AF: 3.6, Hands: 5287
      CO: $11.55 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 24, 3B: 3, AF: 1.5, Hands: 85
      BTN: $16.18 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 23, 3B: 11, AF: 1.0, Hands: 30
      SB: $14.69 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 2.0, Hands: 216
      Hero (BB): $10.30

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A :spade: Q :spade:
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.90, BTN calls $0.70

      Flop: ($3.00) 5 :heart: 4 :spade: K :heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($3.00) 9 :spade: (3 players)
      SB bets $2.00, Hero raises to $9.30, BTN folds, SB calls $7.30

      River: ($21.60) 2 :club: (2 players)

      Not sure, what I was thinking about preflop play, but it might be close
      between calling or folding. SB vs BU play tends to be loose enough to
      justify a call.

      One of the most interesting plays lately I've had.
      Flop: When SB checks, it's very likely that he doesn't have Kx hand.
      The same could be said about BU. Their hands might be something like QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AJ, AQ. I think it's pretty logical so far.

      Turn: Becomes interesting. When SB leads, I still thinks he might have the same range as before. Also, when he bets - our (BB and BU) ranges seem too weak, since most people would bet Kx on the flop.

      I decided to make standard equity JAM vs weak/mid strength range.
      Both - fold equity and pot equity should be +EV.

      If he calls those pairs:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 29.17% 29.17% 0.00% AsQs
      MP3 70.83% 70.83% 0.00% QQ-99

      Of course SB might also have polarized range, and he can also have random X :spade: X :spade: here, which I beat.

      nh ;)
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      I think it is rather close between folding or 4-betting :) If SB is aggressive 3-bettor then I would prefer 4-bet 2.6$ and putting both Sb and BU very difficult situations hands like TT/JJ. Since I don´t expect players mostly shoving these hands I am fine 4-bet/folding my spot.

      Your biggest problem on turn shove is that you did not bet flop, so unless you have there 99 you´re not really representing anything- so I would rather call your spot and consider shoving or betting maybe on hearts river+ also your A or Q might give you best hand

      best regards,