# Calculate EV of preflop All-ins

• Global
Joined: 18.10.2010
For example,

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to \$0.06, fold, BB raises to \$0.30, Hero raises to \$1.06, BB raises to \$1.82, Hero raises to \$2.32 and is all-in, BB calls \$0.39 and is all-in

BB shows A Q (Pre 32%)
Hero shows K K (Pre 68%)
Hero wins \$0.00
BB wins \$4.21

So the calculation goes like this?

0.68*4.21 + 0.32*(-4.21) = 1.59

And that means although I lost that hand I "should"win on long run approximately \$1.59, right?
• 7 replies
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
You need the Equilab

So that you don't die of curiosity while installing it:

Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    68.16%  67.94%   0.22% { KK }
UTG+1  31.84%  31.62%   0.22% { AQs }

Oh, I get it -- you already have the equities.

But I think that you have the calculations a bit skewed -- or I do

"68% equity" means that you "own" 68% of the pot.
The would work out to \$2.86

You put in half of that pot, though (ignoring the blinds to simplify), which is 2.10
So your net gain is 2.86 - 2.10 = 0.76
Less rake of course.

That seems like such a thin margin.
I hope your calculation is correct
• Bronze
Joined: 17.01.2011
vorpal's post is mostly correct. do you think that 30+ big blinds in a result that already discounts rake is something little though

where's op's mistake?
0.68*4.21 + 0.32*(-4.21) = 1.59

if you are calculating EV profit you are not investing \$4.21, the right value to use is effective stacks (\$2.21)

0.68*2.21 - 0.32*2.21 = ~0.80 (also ignoring 1 cent of small blind)

why the result difference? because rake is not being considered.
without rake the pot would actually be \$4.43 instead of \$4.21

since you have the final amount discounting rake though, you can just use it like
4.21*0.68 - 2.21 = ~0.65

how much do you hate nl2 rake now

[edit: i missed 1 cent of small blind. oh well]
• Bronze
Joined: 08.11.2008
Hey,

what you calculated is the EV of the following scenario in the long run:

-you have KK
-you know that opponent has AQ (he shows it to you)
-you shove all-in and he always calls

in that scenario, EV is:

EV = 0.68*2 - 0.32*2.21 = 1.36 - 0,7 = +\$0.66

Of course in reality things are a bit different, since you play vs hand ranges, the equities are different. And you will usually want to know the equity of calling a shove or something similar, then again the calculation is different.

-SF
• Global
Joined: 18.10.2010
Only \$0.66?

So if I played 1,000,000 times KK vs. AQs in the end I would won ONLY \$0.66 ???
I don't know why but this doesn't feel correct...
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Thanks, Tomaloc & Schnitzelfisch for clarifying that.

As you can see, even with slightly better than 2:1 edge in equity, the margin is quite thin.
• Bronze
Joined: 17.01.2011
no, you win \$0.65 EV bucks (raked) each time so you'd win \$0.65 * 1000000

you can make the calculations yourself you see, 68/32 is not a that massive edge
• Bronze
Joined: 30.01.2010
Originally posted by gigenieks
Only \$0.66?

So if I played 1,000,000 times KK vs. AQs in the end I would won ONLY \$0.66 ???
I don't know why but this doesn't feel correct...
I would hope to win a little more than \$0.66

Yeah this means that if you play the hand over and over and over in the same scenario you will win 0.66 each time obviously that doesn't min you will win every single hand but this is the average you will win each time this scenario happens

It's good to see you asking questions in the forum though. You can't learn if you don't ask right? So if you need anything else feel free to ask away

All the best
Carl