[NL2-NL10] bu ATh

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1963922
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      MP: $5.00 - VPIP: 6, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 34
      CO: $5.91 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 31 (from CO: 56%), 3B: 9, AF: 1,4, Hands: 45
      Hero (BTN): $5.07 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 38696
      SB: $9.76 - VPIP: 44, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 25
      BB: $5.07 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0,7, Hands: 62
      UTG: $1.60 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 5,5, Hands: 56

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with T :heart: A :heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.37) 2 :spade: 6 :club: 5 :heart: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

      Turn: ($0.87) T :club: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      River: ($1.87) K :diamond: (2 players)
      CO bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15
  • 9 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Imimba1,

      Depends a lot on the opponent of course and how often we expect him to be CBetting and 3barrel bluffing in those spots. :) Can be called down, can be folded, everything here is possible. That he opens 56% hands from CO is clearly about the sample size which means should even ignore that stat.

      Best Regards.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Imimba1,

      Depends a lot on the opponent of course and how often we expect him to be CBetting and 3barrel bluffing in those spots. :) Can be called down, can be folded, everything here is possible. That he opens 56% hands from CO is clearly about the sample size which means should even ignore that stat.

      Best Regards.
      Well, it probably means he opens wide from there.
      On the river, I see myself behind. I mean, would something 3nd barrel which doesnt beat a pair of tens? He had K:spade :6 :spade: . I dunno, whether he would have 3ndbarrel if he misses...
      I dont know, that whether this is just bad luck. Or as you have said, I dont have to think about this too much, I cant do a mistake by calling.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Imimba1,

      Depends a lot on the opponent of course and how often we expect him to be CBetting and 3barrel bluffing in those spots. :) Can be called down, can be folded, everything here is possible. That he opens 56% hands from CO is clearly about the sample size which means should even ignore that stat.

      Best Regards.
      Well, it probably means he opens wide from there.
      On the river, I see myself behind. I mean, would something 3nd barrel which doesnt beat a pair of tens? He had K:spade :6 :spade: . I dunno, whether he would have 3ndbarrel if he misses...
      I dont know, that whether this is just bad luck. Or as you have said, I dont have to think about this too much, I cant do a mistake by calling.
      The main mistake you are doing here is that you are putting to much effort into stats, though you have a very small sample. Which means if you concentrate on that for such a small sample it means you have a leak in your game cause clearly using the stats wrong.
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      Hi!


      What about raising the CB as a bluff? Let`s assume, that villain`s c-betting such a board at least 80% of the time.

      He would continue only 24% of the time - with straight, sets, over-pairs, top pairs.

      FE: risk/pot+risk
      0.75/0.62+0.75 = 0.75/1.37 = 55%

      So, he needs to fold more than 55% of the time and we`re gaining profit.

      Also, we got reasonable equity, if he calls. We can always choose to barrel any heart on the turn.
      I think, we don`t really need to represent much on the flop to make this play +EV.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by dienaszaglis
      Hi!


      What about raising the CB as a bluff? Let`s assume, that villain`s c-betting such a board at least 80% of the time.

      He would continue only 24% of the time - with straight, sets, over-pairs, top pairs.

      FE: risk/pot+risk
      0.75/0.62+0.75 = 0.75/1.37 = 55%

      So, he needs to fold more than 55% of the time and we`re gaining profit.

      Also, we got reasonable equity, if he calls. We can always choose to barrel any heart on the turn.
      I think, we don`t really need to represent much on the flop to make this play +EV.
      How do you get 24%?! You don't even know him so how can you give so correct range to him? Not really possible. Therefore can't see why you would calculate those things here.

      Whilst we might even be ahead with our Ace high plus have overcards + backdoors perfect spot to float vs him as well.
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      I assigned villains range in Flopzilla and elected hands he would continue with. Of course it`s not exactly 24% and he might not open this wide.



      However, floating looks better but, I think, bluff-raising also is +EV.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      As I said, I don't need to know where you get the 24%. I know those programs myself as well. :P Rather what I wanted to point out is that you can't be sure what kind of hands he is opening with such a sample size. So that's just assumptions.

      There is nothing wrong with raising but if you are against a reasonable opponent he will understand that you can't represent that much. ;) So raising becomes rather not that profitable.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      .
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      .