[NL20-NL50] NL25: AQ 3Bet vs passive fish

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1968028
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BB): $25.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 4,8, Hands: 90087
      UTG: $26.35 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 4,3, Hands: 551
      CO: $19.04 - VPIP: 54, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,4, FoldTocBetFlop: 64(14), FoldToCbetTurn: 0(2), Hands: 69
      BTN: $40.54 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 19, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 58
      SB: $19.90 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 20, 3B: 16, AF: 21,0, Hands: 296

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A :heart: Q :spade:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.10) Q :heart: 4 :diamond: 3 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.35, CO calls $2.35

      Turn: ($8.80) J :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.50, CO calls $4.50

      River: ($17.80) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      The sample size may still be too small for his PFR not to 3Bet this preflop right? Especially because it is a minraise?

      And given that QJ beats me on the turn, I suppose that check/folding river should be OK as there is no room for a blockbet given how little money we have left OTR, I think.
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Easy Bet on the river for value. :P He has enough of worse holdings. :)

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      1) Which weaker hand calls us on the river apart from KQ/QT + very rarely Jx that floated the flop (rarely because he may fold it OTR + he may not be floating that wide on this flop without many backdoors)
      2) Are our stack sizes OTR not inconvenient for a valuebet? How much can we bet if villain has ~$11.50 left and the pot is $17.80?
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      i would think jamming river is the play here. villain seems super passive and can certainly call Qx hands even Jx.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      1) Which weaker hand calls us on the river apart from KQ/QT + very rarely Jx that floated the flop (rarely because he may fold it OTR + he may not be floating that wide on this flop without many backdoors)
      2) Are our stack sizes OTR not inconvenient for a valuebet? How much can we bet if villain has ~$11.50 left and the pot is $17.80?
      Why would you be worried about what worse hands call you on the river? Ain't we against a fish, so he has massive Kx range there and easy ship da money. :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Why would you be worried about what worse hands call you on the river? Ain't we against a fish, so he has massive Kx range there and easy ship da money.


      You probably meant Qx, I suppose?

      Well, there are several reasons why I think we should worry about his river range and whether it is +EV to shove the river.

      1) Villain is an openlimping regular that has not raised a single time before.
      2) If villain's preflop raising range indeed is relatively tight (since he most likely openlimps his very weak holdings), it makes sense to assume that he is openlimping very weak Qx hands and openraising (and let alone calling a 3bet) with somewhat stronger Qx hands, thus we don't beat as many Qx combos on the river since QJ has us beat + we have a split with AQ and it is problematic even to predict whether villain openraise/calls weaker Qx hands than QJ.
      3) He might fold his very weak Qx, e.g. QT
      4) We are beat by JJ-AA and QJ. Weaker hands that may call include AQ (a split), KQ, random unlikely Jx floats. QT and weaker Qx are not impossible but somewhat unlikely because of what I assumed in point #2 + the fact that we may even have fold equity OTR vs them sometimes.

      The weak points in my argumentation = the PFR sample size + the fact that low PFR does not necessarily mean monsters (they may trap by limp/raising sometimes) but it may even be just a stealing hand. AQ may also force us out of the pot if we check (that's bad compared to a split).

      If these weak points are indeed weak enough to endanger the validity of my concerns, don't bother to make a long response and save your time by just confirming this :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Yes, meant Qx but I am not going to even discuss this spot cause it's clear shove for value, I'd even say that it's some kind of mistake to skip value here.