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[NL20-NL50] NL25: AA overpair vs openlimping MS fish

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1982542
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $26.27 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 22, 3B: 7, AF: 2,8, Hands: 130
      SB: $35.44 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 9,0, Hands: 139
      BB: $14.58 - VPIP: 59, PFR: 18, 3B: 20, AF: 1,6, Hands: 17
      UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 20, 3B: 11, AF: 0,5, Hands: 49
      Hero (CO): $25.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 4,8, Hands: 90087

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with A :heart: A :diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60) 8 :diamond: 2 :club: 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.10) 6 :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB raises to $12.58, Hero folds

      Opponent: openlimping fish.

      I guess that folding is indeed the best play on the turn.
      Although he still may sometimes be on a combo draw or some weaker pair here. Anyway, he likely also could have called with them instead + they have at least some equity vs my hand very often.
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Doubt that you can do much differently there whilst too many hands have you there beat.

      Best Regards.
    • prevolsek
      prevolsek
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 290
      Even against such a fish who probably doesn't know the meaning of protection? I saw fish push it in this spots with 9x, 8x, 7x all the time, plus the pot odds are not so bad. If he was 59/0 I would call everytime.

      The fact that his PFR is 18 does make me think that he might actually not be super bad, but still I would put him on this range:

      TT-66,22,A9s,A7s,K9s,T7s+,96s+,86s+,76s,A9o,A7o,K9o,T7o+,96o+,86o+,76o

      and we have 53% equity against it. Also i think that this kind of opponents will actually slowplay monsters like sets or a straight in this spots, and rather go all in with one ot two pair.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Even against such a fish who probably doesn't know the meaning of protection? I saw fish push it in this spots with 9x, 8x, 7x all the time, plus the pot odds are not so bad. If he was 59/0 I would call everytime. The fact that his PFR is 18 does make me think that he might actually not be super bad, but still I would put him on this range: TT-66,22,A9s,A7s,K9s,T7s+,96s+,86s+,76s,A9o,A7o,K9o,T7o+,96o+,86o+,76o and we have 53% equity against it. Also i think that this kind of opponents will actually slowplay monsters like sets or a straight in this spots, and rather go all in with one ot two pair.


      We have like 17 hands on the guy. Forget about his VPIP and PFR :)

      And the range you put him on is ridiculously unjustified (I mean, to say that he plays his 1pair + SD hands using this line is an overstatement without any real evidence. It is just a wild guess. And a guess in the wrong direction most of the times). Be honest – you/we know nothing about this guy's check/raising range on the turn. And neither can it be predicted that easily anyway – such players can play way too randomly sometimes.
      Generally he would play most of his weaker hands passively here – if he check/raises he very often shows up with a stronger hand than 1 pair. Too often for us to make a guess call/push that is basically -EV vs his range + that is very often just going to tilt us if we end up paying him off.
    • prevolsek
      prevolsek
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 290
      I agree that we have a small sample on him and that this is an assumption, but considering that he opnelimps and that he still has played more then 50% of his stats and looks like fond of 3beting (3B: 20%) I would call.
      Perhaps it's a mistake but I doubt that it's a big one.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      3b 20% = 1/5 times or 2/10 times, means nothing? :P
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by prevolsek
      I agree that we have a small sample on him and that this is an assumption, but considering that he opnelimps and that he still has played more then 50% of his stats and looks like fond of 3beting (3B: 20%) I would call.
      Perhaps it's a mistake but I doubt that it's a big one.
      Stats are irrelevant here. It's rather the guy is capable of overplaying his hands or not, though we can't be sure on that. But I do agree that it's not really a spot where we are playing always straight forward. It's rather a question to Hero and how he saw the villain playing.