[NL20-NL50] NL25: 22 set should have donked 3way flop?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1983482
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 3,6, Hands: 541
      MP: $6.72 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 21, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 160
      CO: $25.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 1, AF: 1,7, cBetFlop: 33(9), Hands: 262
      BTN: $35.67 - VPIP: 71, PFR: 13, 3B: 18, AF: 1,9, Hands: 24
      SB: $41.55 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 27, 3B: 0, AF: 1,2, Hands: 30
      Hero (BB): $25.18 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 5,0, Hands: 29842

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 2 :diamond: 2 :club:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.35) 3 :diamond: 2 :spade: 5 :diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $1.25, Hero raises to $4.75, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50

      Turn: ($11.85) 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.00, BTN folds

      CO: reg. BU: loose fishy guy.

      Given the wetness of the board + the fact that neither the PFA seems to be cBetting very wide at the moment, nor the fish seems overly aggressive, I think that a donkbet here is a must.

      As played though:
      Am I committed on this turn? Are we bet/calling even if the FD completes on the turn?
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Check/Raising is still considerable cause even Ace high I'd expect to CB and may level himself to Call. Also most likely a lot of PPs continue here whilst they may put us on Ax hands which may Check/Raise.

      What makes you commit on the turn there? What do you think he is going to raise against you?

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      What makes you commit on the turn there? What do you think he is going to raise against you?


      Most likely with something on the stronger side. Depending on the opponent it may be straights, sets, Ad6d/Ad7d or something like that.

      We need 24% equity to call vs a turn shove and vs a somewhat optimistic range we are close to getting the odds:


      Board: 3:diamond: 2:spade: 5:diamond:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    27.09%  23.90%   3.19% { 2d2c }
      MP3    72.91%  69.72%   3.19% { 55-33, A4s, Ad7d, Ad6d, 7d6d, A4o }


      Though it is close since he may not be shoving with strong FD+GS combos. But he may not be shoving with sets on such a dangerous turn card either.

      On an FD turn it is all worse though.
      Well, OK, I see the point in not calling on turn vs a shove but it does seem close.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      What makes you commit on the turn there? What do you think he is going to raise against you?


      Most likely with something on the stronger side. Depending on the opponent it may be straights, sets, Ad6d/Ad7d or something like that.

      We need 24% equity to call vs a turn shove and vs a somewhat optimistic range we are close to getting the odds:


      Board: 3:diamond: 2:spade: 5:diamond:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    27.09%  23.90%   3.19% { 2d2c }
      MP3    72.91%  69.72%   3.19% { 55-33, A4s, Ad7d, Ad6d, 7d6d, A4o }


      Though it is close since he may not be shoving with strong FD+GS combos. But he may not be shoving with sets on such a dangerous turn card either.

      On an FD turn it is all worse though.
      Well, OK, I see the point in not calling on turn vs a shove but it does seem close.
      Well, you are forgetting the range also being 66 here. :P And may as well sometimes even have 54 or whatsoever hands as well which will close down the calling for us.