[NL2-NL10] NL10 A9s Failed Isolation

    • metza
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Trying to isolate a weak loose-passive player (40+VPIP/22PFR so every time he limp-calls its crap), but get called by an 18/16 player as well.

      Hit my ace on the flop, and figure A9s is probably ahead of his PFcalling range, he's probably playing some weaker suited aces and of course most if not all pocket pairs.

      The turn gives me a flush draw, so I figure I have outs if I'm outkicked, a decent sized pot to win and a lot of fold equity so I go for a check-raise shove.
      I really don't think he usually has AK because I assume he'd 3bet pre, and even AQ is a pretty tough call when facing this line, as I can easily have two pair, set or straight and he's well behind. Turns out he did have AK and tanked for a while before calling.

      PokerStars - $0.10 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $10.51
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $10.00
      UTG+1: $2.90
      Hero (MP): $11.64
      MP+1: $13.46
      LP: $9.85
      CO: $10.00
      BTN: $10.57

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 9:heart: A:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, CO calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.65, 3 players) A:spade: 5:club: Q:heart:
      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80, fold

      Turn: ($3.25, 2 players) K:heart:
      Hero checks, CO bets $2.04, Hero raises to $10.34 and is all-in, CO calls $6.66 and is all-in

      River: ($20.65, 2 players) 2:spade:

      Hero shows 9:heart: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 31%, Flop 16%, Turn 20%)
      CO shows A:diamond: K:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (Pre 69%, Flop 84%, Turn 80%)
      CO wins $19.72
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello metza,

      Preflop: Wouldn't recommend isolating such hands from MP cause they are more often dominated and can't hit that much. Also starting to overplay very often TP as ace.

      As played
      Postflop: As you see. :( Totally overplaying your TP+FD type of holding. You are never making better hands to fold and most likely not getting called from a lot worse. Nor the equity ain't very good vs the hands we getting it in.

      Best Regards.
    • metza
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Cheers Veriz. If you have time could you have a look at my own analysis of my hand and see if I've made any huge errors.

      Preflop: Totally agree that I probably should not have tried to isolate with this hand from this position. :f_biggrin:

      Flop: His range is quite loose at 18%: vs a standard 18% range, we have 63% equity on the flop. Surely a half pot c-bet isn't overplaying our hand is it?

      Turn: It's likely at this stage that if showing weakness by checking to him, we'd expect him to bet all aces in his 18% range and better: A8o+, A4s+, KK, QQ, KQ.

      When we shove, I expect him to lay down everything except AA, AK, KK, QQ, AQ, KQ, A5,55.

      Because we hold an Ace, there are 12 combinations of Ax, and 3 combinations of AA, with the usual 6 combinations of KK,QQ,55.

      Given this, there are 115 combinations of hands that call our flop bet (this is a very cautious estimate as well, as he can easily call 1/2 pot sometimes with a hand like JJ). There are only 57 hand combos he calls with so we have

      50% of hands fold to us, 50% of the time we win $5.29
      50% of the time he calls with the above range, which has us in pretty bad shape with ~25% to win. Our expected value if he calls our shove is 75% losses $6.66, 25% win 11.95, so .75*-6.66+.25*11.95= -2.0075, add in the fold equity .5*5.29 = 2.645-2.0075 = ~0.6

      If all of these assumptions are correct (which they won't be of course :f_biggrin: ) the play is about 0.60c +EV.

      The thing is, its the preflop action which is what got me here thinking my EV is a lot higher than 0.60. I am wrongly convinced by his lack of 3betting that his holdings cannot be premium hands like AA, KK, QQ or AK. This means in my mind the only hands in his calling range that have me crushed are AQ and KQ. I know many micros players are not capable of folding AJ and AT here, but during the hand I am 90% sure that this guy could (especially now after he took so long thinking with AK). I think the turn is a perfect bluff card to fold out AJ, AT, which from his line I think is a very likely holding for him. A check-raise shove here totally looks like KK, AK, AQ, JT, or even slowplayed 55/AA/QQ as the board is dry. I think it is very hard when my opponent who I know is a thinking player, to put me on a backdoor flush and TPRagK.

      Obviously I would never try to make someone fold out AK, AQ, but I don't think he has this from the way he plays it, and even if he does its not an easy call because its definitely a WA/WB decision for him.

      I was quite convinced that his main holdings here are AQ-AT. If I think he has this range 90% most of the time with 10% AK, and will fold about 65% of the time (when he has AJ and AT) should I be making this shove?

      I guess probably for NL10 I am overthinking this and my opponent maybe is not thinking as much as I want him to be, but I think personally facing this line from a player who hasn't made any big moves at the table I would definitely fold AJ and AT, and possibly even AQ. It wasn't like I thought I was getting value here, its that I thought the fold equity of the semi bluff was high enough to cover the 20-25% equity I have if he calls.
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,850
      not really going to comment on what you wrote and mark as evaluated (too sleepy), just going to point out some things in your assumptions.

      - his range that gets to the flop is NOT 18%.
      he might 3bet some of these, he might call wider with good playability hands due to position and almost guaranteed having the fish on the pot.
      - his weak aces and worse showdown value hands may want to do some pot control by checking behind the turn.
      - does your line make sense? :P

      imo the play is interesting, but seems at least slightly - to me. :P
    • metza
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Yeah, I think probably a little -EV given that we don't know opponent well enough, as his rolling over AK showed. :f_frown:

      I think if we can definitively put him on a range of AQ-AT with confidence then it works. But we had only 16 hands on him, I was a bit too trigger happy when I picked up the FD equity and fold equity. Almost got away with it too hehe :f_biggrin:

      There were some metagame positives though, people say table image doesn't matter at micros, but not all NL10 players are total zombies, and I noticed myself getting called down a LOT lighter after this play. :f_o:
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      You rather just leveling too much yourself and seeing the TP+FD hand as way too strong hand, might even rate is as a set. :D The ranges also ain't correct as you can't just put on him 18% and continue accordingly without any specific stat and as Tomaloc said he is 3betting also some part of it.