[NL20-NL50] [Fr] Nl50 66 9.11.2012.

    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Party Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1992816
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $50.75 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 2,3, Hands: 1138
      UTG+1: $44.24 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0,1, Hands: 37
      UTG+2: $12.59 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 6, AF: 2,9, Hands: 914
      MP1: $11.85 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 2, 3B: 1, AF: 1,8, Hands: 481
      MP2: $41.48 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 2,6, Hands: 97
      CO: $52.38 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3,2, Hands: 3813
      Hero (BTN): $59.43 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 28, 3B: 11, AF: 15,0, Hands: 128
      SB: $54.87 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 3,0, Hands: 91
      BB: $16.49 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 6,6, Hands: 18905

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 6 :club: 6 :spade:
      6 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold



      3bet BB vs Steal 10%, 3bet BB overall: 6.1%
      Fto4bet: 35%(40)
      Cbet Flop in 3bet pots: 90%


      Equity Win Tie
      BU 44.30% 43.42% 0.88% { 6s6c }
      BB 55.70% 54.82% 0.88% { 22+, AQs+, AQo+ }


      This is an 8,5% range. I guess the 66 wont show a big profit in the long run. Is it possible to 4bet fold? Dont have any dynamics since I changed nickname.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sikac,

      You are pointing our yourself the equity you get, so how can you fold it then here? :P Right now you are doing profit with the equity you get.

      Best Regards.
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Sikac,

      You are pointing our yourself the equity you get, so how can you fold it then here? :P Right now you are doing profit with the equity you get.

      Best Regards.
      I thought this should be his restealing range(mostly-10%):
      Equity Win Tie
      BU 46.22% 45.48% 0.74% { 6s6c }
      BB 53.78% 53.04% 0.74% { 22+, AQs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

      At this point we are already behind. He fold to 4bet 35% so I would assume he is going broke with this range(6.8%):
      Equity Win Tie
      BU 34.15% 33.34% 0.81% { 6s6c }
      BB 65.85% 65.03% 0.81% { 66+, AJs+, AQo+ }
      We need for a break even call against his 33BB stack 34,93% with rake. So from my calculations we should be able to 4bet/fold.

      Sorry to be bothering you that much but I m studying hm a bit because PP has currently low traffic on NL50 tables so we meet almost on any table and we get into a lot of spots. So I have a couple of question:
      1)Does my calculations make sense?
      2)Does it actually make sense to 4bet if we assume that we are already behind against his restealing range and he doesnt fold enough to 4bets(he needs to fold at least 65%)? Also would you assume from your experience that this FR nittier MSS players 3bet there wider or is my calculation realistic?
      3)If it does make sense to 4bet would you assume that 4$ are gonna have the same FE as 5$? I know from our history that mostly yes but sometimes he tends to call the small 4bet OOP but didnt have any that he calls 2x 4bet.

      As said again currently working on trying to analyze my opponents so any guidance of yours is appreciated. :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      This ain't really that much about the calculations. Cause clearly the MSS player could also go broke a lot looser than you pointing out there for the given reason if you have been aggressive. So it's rather more about dynamics and according to them we adjust.

      I just don't see any reason to 4bet/Fold with our hand whilst have put so much into the pot. Then rather just fold it directly cause clearly we are getting too good equity. The range you build there is most likely the bottom range which you tried to get for less than break-even. ;) So don't cheat me. :D

      With min-raising is the fold equity needed smaller. No need anymore just 65%. But rather towards ~50% if I calculating it correct with my head. :D

      About the sizing I guess we don't need to talk cause I am still going broke. :P