My winrate is 15% of what it should be over 70,000 hands

    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220


      Luckily I have had a few modest tourney cashes to allow me to go NL2->NL5->NL10. But, on a scale of things how badly is variance fucking me right now? I feel like I am really not reaching my true potential here in poker. At the start you can see I was a total noob but I've sorted my game out and should be crushing the micros. But I'm not.

      This sort of standard deviation is not normal right? 70,000 hands is a decent sample. Its hard to deal with this at the start of my poker playing, because that's all there is.

      I guess all I want to ask is how unlucky is this? Does this level of downswing happen to every 1 in 10, in 100, in 1000, in 10000, players? I am not sure how to use variance calculators to find out. All I can hope is that this will balance out and some day I will go on a massive heater but I know it doesn't work like that.
  • 25 replies
    • PokerPPP
      PokerPPP
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      Joined: 29.10.2009 Posts: 494
      Your graph's not showing, at least for me :(
    • pblankfield
      pblankfield
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      Joined: 07.07.2012 Posts: 184
      Luckily I have had a few modest tourney cashes to allow me to go NL2->NL5->NL10...


      I guess all I want to ask is how unlucky is this



      So.. you were lucky by winning a few tournies and now you are unlucky (or at least you think you are)?

      I don't see anything abnormal if that's the case
    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Really? Its showing fine for me...

      If you can't see its basically a consistently widening gap between EV bb won and bb won, at 70k hands they are at:

      EV BB won: 1750
      BB won: 250
    • SchnitzelF
      SchnitzelF
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      Joined: 09.10.2012 Posts: 42
      only 15bi? you can win that in a good day :D .
    • pblankfield
      pblankfield
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      Joined: 07.07.2012 Posts: 184
      not seeing it as well.

      Ev bb isn't the ultimate measure of "true" level, as many people think - it doesn't work at all in multiway pots, it's completely screewed if you are unliky enough to run into coolers over and over again etc etc.

      May I ask what is your bb/100 for nl2, nl5 and nl10?
    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

      And pblankfield, when I said luckily it was more a manner of speech, just two Sunday Storms I satellited into and won $60 and $30, fairly standard. Also busted out of several as well without cashing. And, they are 5.7bb/100, 3.1bb/100 and 1.59bb/100 for NL2,5,10 respectively but I believe they should be higher.

      Does this graph image work?
    • pblankfield
      pblankfield
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      Joined: 07.07.2012 Posts: 184
      Yeah now it works

      Your graphs are fine - both lines follow the same trend overall. Nothing to worry about, you are not unlucky at all.

      Also I might be wrong (I'm not a cash game specialist at all and the stats have a different meaning in tourneys) but isn't EvBB the expected value at showdown while bb won is simply the sum of "won with" and "without showdown"? If that's the case the "gap" is simply coming from the hands you fold and it's perfectly normal

      Again not being a specialist but 1.6bb on NL10 seems a little low - I think you can expect some pretty ugly downswings with this kind of win rate.
    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Yeah pblankfield that's not how it works. Expected Value does include non-sd winnings, it just moves exactly with it. The gap comes from losing equity in all-ins, so the average expected value of my plays where the money got all in and the actual amount won from these all ins differs by 1500 poker tracker Big Bets (BB= 2 big blinds). As you approach infinite number of hands, the difference between all in equity and amount won should be 0. So to be 30BI below EV for my all ins over 70000 hands is significant bad luck in my opinion, but I don't know a great deal about poker so I am curious as to how standard it is. I am assuming to me as a beginner it is a lot bigger a deal than someone who has played a lot.

      Back to my initial question if anyone can answer it, all I want to know is how to run a variance calculator to see the numerical likelyhood of being 1500 ptBB below the expected value. I know its weird but knowing it will bring me some peace of mind. :f_biggrin:
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
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      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by pblankfield
      Also I might be wrong (I'm not a cash game specialist at all and the stats have a different meaning in tourneys) but isn't EvBB the expected value at showdown while bb won is simply the sum of "won with" and "without showdown"? If that's the case the "gap" is simply coming from the hands you fold and it's perfectly normal
      That is wrong.

      EV line shows the expected value when there is a showdown. When there is no showdown, your EV line will follow your green line. There is no "gap" because of the folded hands.

      For example:
      You go AI preflop AA vs KK and win - your EV line will show +80bb and your green line (bb won) will show +100bb (approximately)
      Next hand you win another 50bb, but villain folds on the river - Your EV line will show +130bb and your green line will show +150bb

      EDIT: meh...to slow, metza already answered
    • pblankfield
      pblankfield
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      Joined: 07.07.2012 Posts: 184
      Yeah, I suspected that my answer might be wrong, thanks both - I learned something today :f_biggrin:

      As for a variance calculator you can play around with:
      http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

      You'll also need standard deviation stat. It gives you a pretty good idea of how variance can be harsh, especially with a low bb/100 win rate.
    • DecMate
      DecMate
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      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 939
      I feel for you met, this is pretty bad especially when first playing micros.<3
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by metza
      SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

      2 good days then :D . Things can change very fast in poker. Just focus on constantly fixing your leaks and the results will come as well :) . Your EV line goes up pretty nicely, so it shouldn't really be a problem ;) .

      -SF
    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      Originally posted by metza
      SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

      2 good days then :D . Things can change very fast in poker. Just focus on constantly fixing your leaks and the results will come as well :) . Your EV line goes up pretty nicely, so it shouldn't really be a problem ;) .

      -SF
      Yet it still is a problem lol. The two lines really seem totally independent for me. At the moment it appears my biggest leak has been getting my money in good :f_biggrin: .

      Where are these good days? Over the last few days its gotten even worse, constant bad beats and coolers.

      I played down at NL2 today to regain confidence, and instead got 2 outered 6 times with AA/KK vs mid pocket pairs. Five times money gets all in on the flop overpair vs their middle pair which of course they go all in with and boom five goddamn times they two outer me. Sixth time AA vs TT in 3bet pot, flop T92 rainbow, can't get away from AA vs NL2 donkos. So of course I pay him off.

      Also a few days ago when my bankroll was pretty good, I thought I could have a 1BI attempt at NL50 HU shortstacked since its only 2.5BI at my current limit. I started crushing the guy, turning $25 into $100, and then this crap happened. Every single street he makes an obscenely bad mistake yet the money goes his way. AA vs 69o in 3bet pot: http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/1186773_8D8FF6E30F

      This is the type of player who is the reason I can't win. If I was getting outplayed by regs I'd be fine with that. But even most of the regs at NL10 suck, and I have no problems against them. It makes me sick, taking these fish to valuetown only to have them river a hidden gutshot. The worst part is that when I tilt and play as bad as them, seems to be the only time I can actually win a pot.

      I'm in a pretty bad spot where it seems like there is no correlation at all between how I play and whether I win or not. To add to this feeling, is my recent look at my tournament EV line:



      I know I'm not, but it feels like I'm the unluckiest poker player ever. My whole time playing poker is just lost equity. :f_cry:

      [/whine]
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
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      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Tbh if you take a shot at NL50 HU when you're running bad you'll be going busto in no time. It doesn't matter if it's only 2.5BI at your current limit because the variance in both HU games and shortstacked games is significantly higher than in 100bb SH or FR play.

      The only way to get through running bad it volume. Yeah you're running below EV but so do a lot of other players. To put it into perspective, this guy is 500BI under EV over a large sample:



      Sure it's higher variance games but it certainly puts your 30BI under EV into perspective right?
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by metza
      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      Originally posted by metza
      SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

      2 good days then :D . Things can change very fast in poker. Just focus on constantly fixing your leaks and the results will come as well :) . Your EV line goes up pretty nicely, so it shouldn't really be a problem ;) .

      -SF
      Yet it still is a problem lol. The two lines really seem totally independent for me. At the moment it appears my biggest leak has been getting my money in good :f_biggrin: .

      Where are these good days? Over the last few days its gotten even worse, constant bad beats and coolers.

      I played down at NL2 today to regain confidence, and instead got 2 outered 6 times with AA/KK vs mid pocket pairs. Five times money gets all in on the flop overpair vs their middle pair which of course they go all in with and boom five goddamn times they two outer me. Sixth time AA vs TT in 3bet pot, flop T92 rainbow, can't get away from AA vs NL2 donkos. So of course I pay him off.

      Also a few days ago when my bankroll was pretty good, I thought I could have a 1BI attempt at NL50 HU shortstacked since its only 2.5BI at my current limit. I started crushing the guy, turning $25 into $100, and then this crap happened. Every single street he makes an obscenely bad mistake yet the money goes his way. AA vs 69o in 3bet pot: http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/1186773_8D8FF6E30F

      This is the type of player who is the reason I can't win. If I was getting outplayed by regs I'd be fine with that. But even most of the regs at NL10 suck, and I have no problems against them. It makes me sick, taking these fish to valuetown only to have them river a hidden gutshot. The worst part is that when I tilt and play as bad as them, seems to be the only time I can actually win a pot.

      I'm in a pretty bad spot where it seems like there is no correlation at all between how I play and whether I win or not. To add to this feeling, is my recent look at my tournament EV line:



      I know I'm not, but it feels like I'm the unluckiest poker player ever. My whole time playing poker is just lost equity. :f_cry:

      [/whine]
      In the bolded sentences, you are focusing on the things that you don't have much of an effect on. Also, taking shots on higher limits without the proper bankroll management = gambling and will only make you go broke sooner.

      So again, focus on improving in the areas that you can - your mental game, your poker game, your learning process etc. If you want to be a winning player, stop wasting your time by whining and start doing the things that will make you a better poker player ;) .

      -SF
    • metza
      metza
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      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      You're definitely right SF, I think at the moment the thing that needs the most work is my poker mindset.

      I have been considering for a while now to read Jared Tendler's book Mental Game of Poker and learned yesterday that I can get an audiobook of it for free so there's absolutely no reason not to. Positive Mindset here I come. :f_biggrin:

      @Wriggers, that graph actually helped a lot.
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      I think that's definitely a step in the right direction :) . Good luck on your journey!

      -SF
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Thats a pretty small deviaton, probably like a 30% chance your running good not bad all in ev is a small factor
    • vmarqui
      vmarqui
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      Joined: 25.01.2010 Posts: 4,816
      all in ev has variance too. it isn't what you whould have won.
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