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[NL2-NL10] NL10SH Rush AQs

    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.55)
      Hero ($22.53)
      UTG ($14.31)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      CO ($22.66)
      BTN ($8.68)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: Q:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, UTG+1 calls $0.50

      FLOP ($1.65) 6:heart: 8:diamond: T:heart:

      Hero bets $1.08, UTG+1 calls $1.08

      TURN ($3.81) 6:heart: 8:diamond: T:heart: 9:spade:

      Hero bets $1.90, UTG+1 raises to $4.80, Hero calls $2.90

      RIVER ($13.41) 6:heart: 8:diamond: T:heart: 9:spade: 8:spade:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $3.32 (AI), Hero folds

      UTG+1 wins $12.52

      Should I fold the turn to the raise? The pot odds are good enough to call at 3.62:1
  • 5 replies
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,350
      Bet/fold. You don't have the odds; A or Q are likely no outs for the best hand so you rely only on flush and it might be that 8 and 9 :heart: are not alive. So bet/fold
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      I dunno, if we discount the 8 and 9, still have 4xJ for the gutshot, and 7 flush outs, that's 11 in all, where we'd need odds of 3.18:1 to profitably call and we're likely to get the stack on the river given pot commitment?

      It would appear to be marginal either way I think. I guess the lower variance play would be to fold
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,350
      It's fold or 3-bet on that turn, and 3-bet would be overplaying. Why 3-bet? he has so small stack that we should call the river anyway whatever there comes, so better to commit ourself on turn. And that's why I'd prefer to bet/fold it there, we can't be sure how many outs we have here.
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      Originally posted by CPallo
      It's fold or 3-bet on that turn, and 3-bet would be overplaying. Why 3-bet? he has so small stack that we should call the river anyway whatever there comes, so better to commit ourself on turn. And that's why I'd prefer to bet/fold it there, we can't be sure how many outs we have here.
      We can be sure of the outs, discount the 8 and 9 from the FD and bring in the Jacks for the gutshot. All of those would definitely give us the best hand here and any 7 likely splits the pot.

      I think it's quite a close run thing. I'm not against the B/F like you say on the turn, but I think it could be thought about a bit more, it's quite a tricky spot I feel
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      We should consider bet/folding turn. You get 21% pot odds but we have roughly 18% with our 9 out draw. If you count the Q as an out for a straight than we have another 6% which brings it closer.

      Theoretically we also have some implied odds because he has a small stack and may not be able to fold but also some of our outs may not be clean (if he has a set for example).

      Preflop I feel that your 3-bet size, OOP, is definitely too small. I'd 3-bet 10-12 BBs as you are giving odds to the opponent to see the flop with many hands and you will play OOP which is never fun.