[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50. AK TPTK 3bet pot

    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($50.93)
      BB ($49.50)
      UTG ($60.94)
      UTG+1 ($50.75)
      CO ($70.79)
      Hero ($79.65)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: A:club:

      UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5, fold, fold, UTG calls $3.50

      FLOP ($10.75) 7:heart: A:heart: Q:heart:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG raises to $17.50, Hero ?



      Anon tables, not much important info about villain. Your actions?
  • 7 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Pkrpains,

      What do you think, what kind of range are you against here?

      Best Regards.
    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      This for me is really tough to figure out.

      I'd say his range is something like 77, AQ, maybe some already made flushes, but most likely this is not a bluff at all and rarely a draw, since I have the Kh.

      Now when looking at this, I am thinking that I am virtually sitting with just a flushdraw here, besides, with pretty much no fold equity. And if I hit, usually I am not going to get paid off.

      In theory, I am leaning towards a fold on the flop, but I doubt I would ever do so when actually playing, which is my problem.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Pkrpains
      This for me is really tough to figure out.

      I'd say his range is something like 77, AQ, maybe some already made flushes, but most likely this is not a bluff at all and rarely a draw, since I have the Kh.

      Now when looking at this, I am thinking that I am virtually sitting with just a flushdraw here, besides, with pretty much no fold equity. And if I hit, usually I am not going to get paid off.

      In theory, I am leaning towards a fold on the flop, but I doubt I would ever do so when actually playing, which is my problem.
      Very good, now lets try to build the equity here. Lets figure out how much equity we get vs some given flushes + those strong hands. I will later on provide you the information how much equity we gonna need.
    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Ok veriz,

      I gave him the following range on the flop:

      77,AQs,Th9h,9h8h,AQo,AsJh

      This is something I would expect him to possibly have on this spot. Against it we have 42.82% equity. Which for me is kinda surprising.

      On the flop we need to be ahead 36.5% of the time if I am not mistaken, which leads to the fact the folding is wrong?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Pkrpains
      Ok veriz,

      I gave him the following range on the flop:

      77,AQs,Th9h,9h8h,AQo,AsJh

      This is something I would expect him to possibly have on this spot. Against it we have 42.82% equity. Which for me is kinda surprising.

      On the flop we need to be ahead 36.5% of the time if I am not mistaken, which leads to the fact the folding is wrong?
      We need ~42% equity to make it just break-even. As you pointed out that vs your range you getting 43% equity which tells us that we are near towards break-even to go broke. Though if I'd edit a bit the range of his whilst I'd expect him also to have QQ here:

      Board: 7:heart: A:heart: Q:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    60.15%  60.01%   0.13% { QQ, 77, AQs, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, AQo, AsJh }
      MP3    39.85%  39.72%   0.13% { AcKh }

      the equity ain't that good. So it means we ain't gonna earn profit in those spots in long run unless we expecting him to do that with a lot wider range.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Isn't this a fold or call spot? Cause with a raise we let him fold all worse hands. And we can't call because we expect him to have a valueweighted range and we don't have good implieds. So fold.

      Right?
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Hey,

      If we bet the flop its very hard for him to call with a worse hand. He likely has a pocket pair or broadways when he calls pre flop.

      All pocket pairs that we beat will fold this flop.

      All broadways will fold as we hold the Kh meaning he won't be chasing the nut flush draw.

      By checking back we allow him to bluff and try to get us to fold Qx, JJ, KK as we would expect us to cbet AK/AQ because of the flush draw.

      It's actually very similar to what Farmarchist said below and we do fold out all hands that we beat. But checking back and inducing >>>> bet/folding :)