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[NL2-NL10] NL2 AJ, cbet or not to cbet?

    • ArtCascade
      Joined: 18.06.2012 Posts: 17
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J.
      6 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, BB calls $0.06.

      Flop: ($0.16) 2, Q, 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.10, BB raises to $0.20, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.26.

      Is this a silly cbet? I realise I don't have many outs, but with this dry board it is not likely that villain hit either, I have high card, so with initiative I was hoping to collect the pot. When I played the hand I had very few hands with villain, but later on he turned out to be very loose, so at that point I probably wouldn't have bothered, but let's assume unknown villain here.

      Or maybe people just don't fold enough on NL2, even with air, that this cbet is -EV?
      With a call, what would my plan be for turn (assuming I miss), c/f?

      Thanks for any help! :)
  • 3 replies
    • yougotfelted51
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      i would probably lean towards check/folding here. i would expect villain to float almost 100% on this particular board, and then we just end up check/folding turn so often
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      If you check you almost always have to give up against unknown.

      As you said he doesn't hit this board very often so we can make a bet and collect the pot often enough to show a profit. With a 10c bet you need to win the pot ~38% of the time.

      If you get called on most low turn cards we can simply ck/fold. I would fire again on a K or A. On a T we can also fire sometimes and on a J we could check and see what he does.
    • ArtCascade
      Joined: 18.06.2012 Posts: 17
      Yes, I guess my question boils down to whether unknown at NL2 fold 38% or more in this spot. :P I think that was my motivation for keeping the betsize pretty small. With a potsized bet, I would need 50% fold, and not sure the larger bet would increase the fold-probability that much?

      So I should just accept that this was one of the (less than) 62% and fire again next time?