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[NL20-NL50] NL25: ATs OK turn FD fold?

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1998688
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $3.79 - VPIP: 41, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 1,3, Hands: 85
      CO: $34.58 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 0,9, Hands: 67
      Hero (BTN): $30.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 4,8, Hands: 90087
      SB: $31.66 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 2,5, Hands: 334
      BB: $27.50 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 2, AF: 2,0, Hands: 162

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T :spade: A :spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.25) 8 :spade: 8 :club: K :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.63, SB calls $0.63

      Turn: ($2.51) 7 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.50, Hero folds

      Villain: reg

      Is a fold on the turn OK or too nitty?
      I guess we actually have at least some sort of implied odds because our flush is somewhat not obvious but the paired board makes it still not that great a call. Though sometimes A is also an out.

      I'm leaning towards folding.
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I'd prefer a slightly larger cbet here.

      What range do you put him on for donking the turn? Can we not raise/fold? If we can raise, how much?
    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      What range do you put him on for donking the turn? Can we not raise/fold? If we can raise, how much?

      Tough to put him on a precise range as it is quite opponent-dependent. But I definitely wouldn't exclude trips, 77, Kx, maybe sometimes some bluffs with Ax. Maybe, but I'm not too sure about it, he could sometimes be playing some sort of a PP this way, fearing giving away free cards for overcard draws – but it seems a bit unlikely to me. Although he is using a bit of a weak sizing.

      The problem is that I am not really sure I have any serious fold equity at all vs a relatively unknown guy that chooses this line. Kx can easily call and that is also my biggest concern. Because depending on what range he chooses to play this way with, whether or not he folds Kx is very essential for our decision on whether or not to raise, I think.
      I mean, if he ch/calls flop and donks this turn with made hands only and does not fold Kx, there is already no point in raising, is there? Even with our equity.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Betting flop this way ain't wrong if we assume to have same fold equity. Just decent players may fight back against you cause they expect to rather bet bigger with Kx, therefore should also Bet a bit bigger instead.

      Raising turn wouldn't make much sense cause we would be representing rather just 8x holdings or 77. We don't raise that often Kx holdings in those spots for value unless we have a strong Kx, though we may bluff in those spots.

      We rather should be asking what's his donking range gonna look like? As he may smell weakness in our flop Bet => this may also induce him to take bluff lines there. If we assume he is doing that with loose range we can always Call the turn and take a stab on the river if he Checks into us whilst we may sometimes even be ahead with Ace high here and of course have overcard/FD outs. Or just simply pick the passive approach by folding the hand and next time fixing our CB size.

      Best Regards.